andrew milgram

Data from 1,200 middle market companies shows persistent earnings deterioration, narrowing margins, and 25%+ unable to cover debt service, driving bankruptcy wave while public companies thrive.

Fitch data shows private credit concentrated in lowest quality tier; managers avoid marking defaults via waivers/amendments, while BDCs take equity risk via PIK debt in deteriorating middle market companies.

Large public companies push costs onto middle market suppliers while maintaining consumer pricing power, widening the K-shaped divide; middle market faces margin crush and debt service failure.

Bought distressed medallion loans at deep discount, restructured operations with data-driven driver management, consolidated fragmented market, and took public to realize durable cash flows.

Purchasing government-backed tax credit refunds at discount from liquidity-constrained middle market companies, earning 6-7% statutory interest while waiting for IRS payment, with put-back protection.

Firms applying operational force to unloved assets create value; those merely buying and attending board meetings add no value and lack future in competitive market.