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andrew

T2 · manager / operator

Member of SemiAnalysis's STEEL teardown lab team specializing in semiconductor physical analysis, die extraction, and process node characterization.

2 calls·2 names·100% bull·last heard 17 days ago·TBPN
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$TAX-WIRETax Wireposition

Tax Wire raises $25M for AI-native global sales tax compliance automation

States increasing sales tax enforcement using AI audits; incumbents outdated; $5T in sales tax/VAT remitted; AI-native service displaces legacy software + Big 4.

TBPN2026-06episode →
2ndhigh conviction
$SPLIT-PAYSplit Pay

Split Pay scales to $80M run rate with proprietary cash-flow underwriting beating FICO

Split Pay built a proprietary cash-flow underwriting model trained on in-house data that outperforms FICO for millennials, enabling a 'creditback' debit card that dynamically stretches via ACH to give consumers 30-90 days float; 1M users, $80M run rate in ~1 year.

TBPN2026-09episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $SPLIT-PAY
  • $TAX-WIRE

recurring themes

  • AI Geopolitics & Export Controls1
  • AI Hardware & Chip Architecture1
  • Fintech1
2 total
$SPLIT-PAY
Split Pay
HIGHandrew·TBPN·17 days ago·GG Navier Stokes, Math Wars, Greg Brockman Joins, Scott Wu Joins, The Seufenator Joins
Split Pay scales to $80M run rate with proprietary cash-flow underwriting beating FICO
Split Pay built a proprietary cash-flow underwriting model trained on in-house data that outperforms FICO for millennials, enabling a 'creditback' debit card that dynamically stretches via ACH to give consumers 30-90 days float; 1M users, $80M run rate in ~1 year.
"We built our own foundation model first and foremost for underwriting and it's a cash flow based model... entirely trained on in-house data and then we apply deep learning to it..…"
164:10
$TAX-WIRE
Tax Wire
HIGHandrew·TBPN·3 months ago·Etched Founder Joins, AI Creates Jobs, It's OVER for Peptides, Tristan Thompson in the Ultradome· position
Tax Wire raises $25M for AI-native global sales tax compliance automation
States increasing sales tax enforcement using AI audits; incumbents outdated; $5T in sales tax/VAT remitted; AI-native service displaces legacy software + Big 4.
"Rough roughly correct. The secular trend is is kind of like a few things. One is regulation. So there's that regulation has been rolling out and what we're seeing now is that uh a…"
116:44
8
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlstailwind
Export controls force Huawei and SMIC into architectural and process innovation
U.S. restrictions compelled Huawei to transition from TSMC N5 to SMIC nodes, driving architectural efficiency gains (Kirin 9030 outperforms prior TSMC-based designs) and forcing SMIC to innovate on DUV-only scaling with aggressive compromises.
7
AI Hardware & Chip Architecturetailwind
Huawei maximizes transistor efficiency via DTCO and library optimization under process constraints
Forced onto inferior SMIC nodes, Huawei offset process deficits by aggressively adopting high-density libraries, adding NPU cores (1 light + 2 tiny vs prior 1+1), and optimizing every transistor — demonstrating how design-technology co-optimization can partially compensate for lithography gaps, a playbook relevant for any constrained foundry ecosystem.
7
Fintechtailwind
Cash-flow underwriting and ACH innovation disrupt consumer credit for millennials
Proprietary cash-flow models beat FICO for younger demographics; Split Pay's 'creditback' debit card uses ACH capture/settlement to dynamically extend 30-90 day float at scale ($80M run rate, 1M users), turning the largest US payment network into a credit-like rail without traditional rails.