CEO of Arena, an LLM benchmarking platform that runs real-world evaluations and leaderboards for AI models. Provides insight into model performance, pricing dynamics, and enterprise adoption trends.
no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY
Same dynamic as OpenAI: Chinese open-weight models at frontier performance and reasonable cost undermine the value proposition of closed-source providers like Anthropic for enterprise customers.
Kimi K3 and future Chinese open models will serve as base models for US companies, reversing the distillation flow and threatening the closed-source business model due to privacy, data-leakage, and competitive concerns.
Despite Gemini 3.5 delays, the Google team is excellent and a strong Gemini 4 release is expected, positioning Google for a competitive comeback against OpenAI and Anthropic.