alex wezner

OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution with 10K agents cost millions; Noam Brown notes same capability drops to $20/month in two years (25,000x cost collapse); multiple Clay problems (Hodge, Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer) rumored solved — science bulk-solving has begun.

Chinese labs algorithmically circumvent HBM scarcity via sparsity and encoder-decoder architectures, creating a post-von Neumann vs. eastern innovation tension; Western labs will adopt these innovations, collapsing memory bottlenecks and rewriting fab investment logic (nanometer nodes, 3D stacking, Terrafab).

Algorithmic innovations (sparsity, SSD/DDR lookup tables) are reducing HBM demand 4x, upending data center architecture, fab investment, and space-launch economics; Western labs will adopt these innovations rapidly.

DeepSeek V4.1 flash cut KV cache memory from 48,000 to 890 via engram lookup on SSD/DDR, routing around HBM bottleneck. This changes what data centers are built from, which fabs get investment, nanometer node priorities, and even mass-to-orbit for space-based compute. 40% of trillion-dollar capex at risk.

DeepSeek V4.1 Flash cuts KV cache from 48K to 890 tokens via sparse attention and SSD/DDR offload, routing around the HBM bottleneck. Alex Wezner: 'This completely changes what a data center should be built out of... which fabs you should be investing in right now completely change.' 40% of $1T+ capex is HBM; a 4x demand drop reshapes the entire semiconductor value chain.

Anthropic's economic report shows extreme scenario: AI performs 50% cognitive work by 2030, GDP grows 15%/yr, labor share falls 60%→45%; Wezner argues standard GDP measures will break near singularity, real wealth growth could be 2-3x/year.

Insilico's Chemistry42 invented Rentoseratib (IPF/aging) — first AI drug to reach Phase 3. Proteomic aging clocks show 3-6 year biological age reversal at week 4, implying marginal Longevity Escape Velocity. AlphaGenome's 9B mutation atlas connects genotype to phenotype, enabling domain-specific neural nets for each disease. Regulatory arbitrage (medical charter cities) will accelerate approval.

Insilico's Rentoseratib (AI-identified target + AI-designed molecule) shows 3-6 year biological age reversal across six protein clocks at week 4 — a marginal longevity escape velocity signal. Phase 3 for IPF validates the generative chemistry platform (Chemistry42). Regulatory recognition of aging as treatable condition is the key unlock.