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alex imas

T2 · manager / operator

Economist and professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. His research focuses on behavioral economics, finance, and decision-making under uncertainty.

2 calls·2 names·100% bull·last heard 4 months ago·Dwarkesh Patel
track record

no scored calls yet — needs a stated position or a categorical verdict, with a matured window vs SPY

top calls

highest conviction · one per company
1sthigh conviction
$NVDANvidia

H100 rental costs rising despite compute abundance: demand outpaces supply

As AI models get smarter, the opportunity cost of compute increases, driving up H100 rental prices even as technology improves and total compute supply grows — a reversal of Moore's Law dynamics where compute value halves every 18 months.

Dwarkesh Patel2026-06episode →
2ndmedium conviction
$SKHYSK hynix

SK Hynix highlighted as critical AI supply chain asset for sovereign indexing

Developing countries need exposure to the AI hardware supply chain — specifically HBM maker SK Hynix — not just broad indices, to capture AGI wealth gains.

Dwarkesh Patel2026-06episode →

most discussed · click a bar to filter

  • $NVDA
  • $SKHY

recurring themes

  • AI Infrastructure1
  • Macro & Rates1
  • AI Geopolitics & Export Controls1
  • AI Safety & Alignment1
2 total
$NVDA
···
Nvidia
HIGHalex imas·Dwarkesh Patel·4 months ago·The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
H100 rental costs rising despite compute abundance: demand outpaces supply
As AI models get smarter, the opportunity cost of compute increases, driving up H100 rental prices even as technology improves and total compute supply grows — a reversal of Moore's Law dynamics where compute value halves every 18 months.
"The famous fact here is that an H100 costs more to rent now than it did three years ago, even though we have much superior technology and much more compute in the world. Because a…"
15:33
$SKHY
···
SK hynix
MEDalex imas·Dwarkesh Patel·4 months ago·The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
SK Hynix highlighted as critical AI supply chain asset for sovereign indexing
Developing countries need exposure to the AI hardware supply chain — specifically HBM maker SK Hynix — not just broad indices, to capture AGI wealth gains.
"Does Nigeria own a lot of SK Hynix and Anthropic? I'm guessing not. It's not enough for them to just own the S&P 500."
66:34
9
AI Infrastructuretailwind
Compute demand inflection: H100 prices rising as model intelligence increases opportunity cost
The historical Moore's Law dynamic (compute value halving every 18 months) has reversed: smarter models raise the marginal value of compute, causing H100 rental costs to increase despite superior technology and greater supply. This suggests a structural shift where compute share of economy grows rather than shrinks.
8
Macro & Ratesmixed
Network-adjusted capital share stable at ~50% for electronics; full automation could push it to 100%
Current supply-chain analysis shows computer/electronic products maintain ~50% network-adjusted capital share (not 100%) because labor adds value downstream. A qualitative shift occurs when entire supply chains automate — network-adjusted capital share goes to 1 — with ambiguous implications for aggregate labor share depending on demand elasticity and variety expansion.
8
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlstailwind
Developing countries should prioritize sovereign indexing of AI supply chain over retraining programs
Given speed of AI takeoff, buying exposure to AGI winners (via sovereign wealth funds or citizen subsidies for AI equity) is more robust than retraining — especially for countries with weak education systems. Leapfrogging (like mobile banking in Nigeria) is possible but indexing is the cleaner first strategy.
7
AI Safety & Alignmenttailwind
Commoditized frontier models reduce political capture risk and may improve safety via diffuse governance
Concentrated labs create clear political targets (e.g., Defense Production Act threats) and concentrate power. Commoditization diffuses both economic gains and governance leverage, potentially reducing misuse risk despite faster capability diffusion — a net positive trade-off per the speakers.