alan waxman

Investment themes inevitably attract capital, become crowded, and turn negative; Sixth Street's edge is a silo-free culture that unitizes risk/return across asset classes and rotates themes before they deteriorate.

The factory model—industrializing fundraising then deployment—causes GPs to lower underwriting standards, raise narrow-strategy perpetual BDCs with quarterly liquidity promises backed by illiquid assets, and engage in inflow investing that ignores supply/demand dynamics.

High-net-worth investors currently allocate only 3-5% to private alternatives vs 40-50% for pensions/endowments; this gap will close but requires responsible product structures to avoid liquidity mismatches.

Once any company in an industry deploys agentic AI to drive higher margins, slow adopters across all sectors face existential disruption similar to today's software industry, making adaptability the key investment filter.

Top sports teams (Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Dallas Cowboys, Yankees) are historically local brands becoming global due to digital distribution; Sixth Street partners on stadium JVs and premium experiences to capture this shift.

Sixth Street started AirTrunk in 2017 from a white sheet of paper, recognizing data center demand before AI explosion; exit to Blackstone at ~$16B confirms infrastructure scarcity value.

The post-GFC system (regulated commercial banks + matched private capital) worked until 2018; restoring it requires wide-aperture multi-strategy funds with governed inflows, matched liabilities, and market discipline over regulation.

AI hyperscalers focus on competition with China and each other, but insufficient attention on managing labor market transition as productivity gains accelerate; Waxman calls this a 'code red' issue.