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▶ 18:11 · $HIMS · Asymmetric Investing AMA

now playing · $HIMS

$HIMS···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Hims & Hers at 8% portfolio weight: demand aggregator thesis with 74% CAGR at 2.1x EV/sales

Hims is building a demand-side platform in healthcare (like Uber for rides) starting with ED/hair loss/weight loss as Trojan horses; the Novo Nordisk partnership validates supplie…

$TMDX···neutral· lowtravis hoium

TransMedics on radar at 32x forward PE; growth flattened, needs more research

TransMedics popular on social media but forward PE 32x, EV/Sales >4x; quarterly growth has flattened; on watchlist of ~20 names for potential dislocation buying but thesis not con…

$CELH···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Sold Celsius position: organic growth thesis broken after Alani Nu acquisition

Celsius was growing organically but the Alani Nu acquisition signaled a shift away from the core growth engine; took profits because the forward trajectory no longer matched the o…

$DIS···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Disney at 13x forward P/E: parks moat + streaming optionality = asymmetric risk/reward

Disney trades at 13x forward earnings with a $200B enterprise value; parks generate $10B+ operating profit growing steadily, Disney+ is likely the #3 streaming service globally, a…

$SOFI···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

SoFi held in fintech basket: member growth off the charts vs traditional banks

SoFi and Robinhood represent branchless fintech disruption with operating leverage; SoFi's member growth has been exceptional, though Robinhood's product suite is preferred; both…

$HOOD···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Robinhood at 12x EV/sales with operating leverage kicking in; sold half in Dec, may re-add on weakness

Robinhood's branchless model creates massive operating leverage as revenue scales; trading revenue is cyclical but custodial/IRA products add stability; sold half at peak valuatio…

$SOFI···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

SoFi's member growth outpaces Robinhood despite weaker product preference

Hoium said he prefers Robinhood's products but finds it difficult to ignore SoFi's stronger member-growth figures, which he described as off the charts.

$JOBY···neutral· low· postravis hoium

Joby down 50%: speculative eVTOL with $1B runway, on radar for late 2026 but not adding yet

Joby has capital to survive 3+ years and hits milestones, but eVTOL certification/commercialization risk is high; will consider adding only after further de-risking in late 2026.

$GOOGL···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Alphabet is sole AI holding: buying hyperscalers in the trough of disillusionment after Capex bubble bursts

AI Capex ($700B this year) is unsustainable; when ROI disappointment hits, Alphabet/Google will survive and thrive like Amazon/Google post-dotcom; avoids neoclouds (unprofitable,…

$ORCL···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Oracle called worst stock to own for a year: neocloud model unprofitable and debt-laden

Oracle's cloud infrastructure play resembles a utility but without profitability, using massive debt; neoclouds generally are high-risk with unclear sustainable business models.

$CAVA···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Cava too expensive at 8x EV/Sales and 145x PE despite 74% growth; restaurant wall ahead

Cava trades at ~8x EV/Sales and 145x PE; same-store sales turned negative recently; restaurants are brutally competitive and hit saturation walls; no personal product experience a…

$RKLB···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Space stocks bubbly and unprofitable; SpaceX IPO will suck oxygen from room

Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Redwire all unprofitable with unclear competitive advantages vs SpaceX; SpaceX IPO imminent (1-2 months) will dominate capital and attention; space econom…

$ASTS···bearish· medium· postravis hoium

Short AST SpaceMobile via long-dated puts: space-based telecom economics unlikely to work

Space-to-cell telecom faces fundamental economic challenges; skeptical any company can profitably provide satellite connectivity directly to phones at scale.

$ONON···bullish· high· postravis hoium

On Holding at 2.7x EV/sales with 35% 3-yr CAGR, 63% gross margins vs Nike 41%: favorite stock now

On trades at only 50% premium to Nike despite 35% vs 0% growth, 63% vs 41% gross margins, and double the EBITDA margin; premium brand resilience in recession makes risk-reward exc…

$UBER···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Uber at <20x forward P/E with 18% 3-yr growth: demand aggregator for autonomy, plans to buy in April

Uber owns ride-hail/food delivery demand (smiling curve); autonomy expands supply 3-5x and cuts cost/mile from $2-3 to ~$1, dramatically expanding TAM; off-hours robotics delivery…

$QS···neutral· lowtravis hoium

QuantumScape on radar: solid-state battery tech may win but company may not profit (solar industry analogy)

Solid-state batteries could be transformative like solar, but QuantumScape lost $435M on zero revenue; solar costs plummeted and demand exploded yet almost no public solar company…

$Z···bullish· mediumtravis hoium

Zillow as AI-powered real estate aggregator replacing broker model

Traditional 6% broker model broken - brokers just pull Zillow to answer questions; Zillow's AI presentation shows path to disintermediate brokers; OpenDoor model unsustainable ($1…

$OPEN···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Opendoor may go bankrupt in 3 years: lost $1.3B last year, iBuying model unsustainable

Opendoor's iBuying model lost $1.3B in latest year; stock rallied but fundamentals deteriorating; AI-driven platforms like Zillow will disintermediate brokers entirely, making Ope…

$RDDT···neutral· lowtravis hoium

Reddit is a blind spot: personal product dislike prevents analysis despite LLM data licensing tailwind

Reddit monetizes content for LLM training but personal aversion to the product creates analytical blind spot; acknowledges this as a limitation rather than a fundamental bear case.

$MGM···bullish· high· postravis hoium

MGM at $9B market cap: core Vegas business at 3-4x cash flow after stripping BetMGM/Macau, Japan resort optionality

Excluding 50% BetMGM stake and 56% Macau subsidiary, the core Las Vegas business trades at 3-4x cash flow; buying back 10-15% of shares annually; Japan integrated resort (opens 20…

$LYFT···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Lyft at 11x earnings: value play on autonomy demand aggregation, predicts Amazon acquisition by year-end

Lyft is the #2 ride-hail player trading at 11x earnings with growing free cash flow; benefits from same autonomy tailwinds as Uber; Amazon likely acquires Lyft to enter mobility g…

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▶ 18:11 · $HIMS · Asymmetric Investing AMA

now playing · $HIMS

$HIMS···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Hims & Hers at 8% portfolio weight: demand aggregator thesis with 74% CAGR at 2.1x EV/sales

Hims is building a demand-side platform in healthcare (like Uber for rides) starting with ED/hair loss/weight loss as Trojan horses; the Novo Nordisk partnership validates supplie…

$TMDX···neutral· lowtravis hoium

TransMedics on radar at 32x forward PE; growth flattened, needs more research

TransMedics popular on social media but forward PE 32x, EV/Sales >4x; quarterly growth has flattened; on watchlist of ~20 names for potential dislocation buying but thesis not con…

$CELH···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Sold Celsius position: organic growth thesis broken after Alani Nu acquisition

Celsius was growing organically but the Alani Nu acquisition signaled a shift away from the core growth engine; took profits because the forward trajectory no longer matched the o…

$DIS···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Disney at 13x forward P/E: parks moat + streaming optionality = asymmetric risk/reward

Disney trades at 13x forward earnings with a $200B enterprise value; parks generate $10B+ operating profit growing steadily, Disney+ is likely the #3 streaming service globally, a…

$SOFI···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

SoFi held in fintech basket: member growth off the charts vs traditional banks

SoFi and Robinhood represent branchless fintech disruption with operating leverage; SoFi's member growth has been exceptional, though Robinhood's product suite is preferred; both…

$HOOD···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Robinhood at 12x EV/sales with operating leverage kicking in; sold half in Dec, may re-add on weakness

Robinhood's branchless model creates massive operating leverage as revenue scales; trading revenue is cyclical but custodial/IRA products add stability; sold half at peak valuatio…

$SOFI···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

SoFi's member growth outpaces Robinhood despite weaker product preference

Hoium said he prefers Robinhood's products but finds it difficult to ignore SoFi's stronger member-growth figures, which he described as off the charts.

$JOBY···neutral· low· postravis hoium

Joby down 50%: speculative eVTOL with $1B runway, on radar for late 2026 but not adding yet

Joby has capital to survive 3+ years and hits milestones, but eVTOL certification/commercialization risk is high; will consider adding only after further de-risking in late 2026.

$GOOGL···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Alphabet is sole AI holding: buying hyperscalers in the trough of disillusionment after Capex bubble bursts

AI Capex ($700B this year) is unsustainable; when ROI disappointment hits, Alphabet/Google will survive and thrive like Amazon/Google post-dotcom; avoids neoclouds (unprofitable,…

$ORCL···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Oracle called worst stock to own for a year: neocloud model unprofitable and debt-laden

Oracle's cloud infrastructure play resembles a utility but without profitability, using massive debt; neoclouds generally are high-risk with unclear sustainable business models.

$CAVA···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Cava too expensive at 8x EV/Sales and 145x PE despite 74% growth; restaurant wall ahead

Cava trades at ~8x EV/Sales and 145x PE; same-store sales turned negative recently; restaurants are brutally competitive and hit saturation walls; no personal product experience a…

$RKLB···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Space stocks bubbly and unprofitable; SpaceX IPO will suck oxygen from room

Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Redwire all unprofitable with unclear competitive advantages vs SpaceX; SpaceX IPO imminent (1-2 months) will dominate capital and attention; space econom…

$ASTS···bearish· medium· postravis hoium

Short AST SpaceMobile via long-dated puts: space-based telecom economics unlikely to work

Space-to-cell telecom faces fundamental economic challenges; skeptical any company can profitably provide satellite connectivity directly to phones at scale.

$ONON···bullish· high· postravis hoium

On Holding at 2.7x EV/sales with 35% 3-yr CAGR, 63% gross margins vs Nike 41%: favorite stock now

On trades at only 50% premium to Nike despite 35% vs 0% growth, 63% vs 41% gross margins, and double the EBITDA margin; premium brand resilience in recession makes risk-reward exc…

$UBER···bullish· high· postravis hoium

Uber at <20x forward P/E with 18% 3-yr growth: demand aggregator for autonomy, plans to buy in April

Uber owns ride-hail/food delivery demand (smiling curve); autonomy expands supply 3-5x and cuts cost/mile from $2-3 to ~$1, dramatically expanding TAM; off-hours robotics delivery…

$QS···neutral· lowtravis hoium

QuantumScape on radar: solid-state battery tech may win but company may not profit (solar industry analogy)

Solid-state batteries could be transformative like solar, but QuantumScape lost $435M on zero revenue; solar costs plummeted and demand exploded yet almost no public solar company…

$Z···bullish· mediumtravis hoium

Zillow as AI-powered real estate aggregator replacing broker model

Traditional 6% broker model broken - brokers just pull Zillow to answer questions; Zillow's AI presentation shows path to disintermediate brokers; OpenDoor model unsustainable ($1…

$OPEN···bearish· mediumtravis hoium

Opendoor may go bankrupt in 3 years: lost $1.3B last year, iBuying model unsustainable

Opendoor's iBuying model lost $1.3B in latest year; stock rallied but fundamentals deteriorating; AI-driven platforms like Zillow will disintermediate brokers entirely, making Ope…

$RDDT···neutral· lowtravis hoium

Reddit is a blind spot: personal product dislike prevents analysis despite LLM data licensing tailwind

Reddit monetizes content for LLM training but personal aversion to the product creates analytical blind spot; acknowledges this as a limitation rather than a fundamental bear case.

$MGM···bullish· high· postravis hoium

MGM at $9B market cap: core Vegas business at 3-4x cash flow after stripping BetMGM/Macau, Japan resort optionality

Excluding 50% BetMGM stake and 56% Macau subsidiary, the core Las Vegas business trades at 3-4x cash flow; buying back 10-15% of shares annually; Japan integrated resort (opens 20…

$LYFT···bullish· medium· postravis hoium

Lyft at 11x earnings: value play on autonomy demand aggregation, predicts Amazon acquisition by year-end

Lyft is the #2 ride-hail player trading at 11x earnings with growing free cash flow; benefits from same autonomy tailwinds as Uber; Amazon likely acquires Lyft to enter mobility g…