Hims is building a demand-side platform in healthcare (like Uber for rides) starting with ED/hair loss/weight loss as Trojan horses; the Novo Nordisk partnership validates supplie…

Disney trades at 13x forward PE with $200B enterprise value; parks generate $10B+ operating profit growing steadily, Disney+ is likely third-largest streaming service behind YouTu…

Disney trades at 13x forward earnings with a $200B enterprise value; parks generate $10B+ operating profit growing steadily, Disney+ is likely the #3 streaming service globally, a…

SoFi and Robinhood represent branchless fintech disruption with operating leverage; SoFi's member growth has been exceptional, though Robinhood's product suite is preferred; both…

Robinhood shows phenomenal operating leverage with custodial accounts and IRAs maturing the model; EV/Sales 12x is expensive but cost basis in 20s, sold half at peak valuation, ma…

SoFi and Robinhood represent a new banking paradigm with zero branch overhead; SoFi's member growth has been exceptional and the basket approach acknowledges uncertainty about whi…

Robinhood's branchless model creates massive operating leverage as revenue scales; trading revenue is cyclical but custodial/IRA products add stability; sold half at peak valuatio…

Joby pulled back ~50%, raised ~$1B giving 3-year runway; hitting milestones but still speculative; may add later in 2026 if progress continues; not timing market.

Joby has capital to survive 3+ years and hits milestones, but eVTOL certification/commercialization risk is high; will consider adding only after further de-risking in late 2026.

AI Capex ($700B this year) is unsustainable; when ROI disappointment hits, Alphabet/Google will survive and thrive like Amazon/Google post-dotcom; avoids neoclouds (unprofitable,…

Only AI exposure is Alphabet; hyperscaler capex ($700B) unsustainable, will hit wall and enter trough of disillusionment where Google/Amazon/Netflix become buys; neo-clouds are un…

Space-to-cell telecom faces fundamental economic challenges; skeptical any company can profitably provide satellite connectivity directly to phones at scale.

Short position via long-dated puts on AST SpaceMobile; skeptical that space-based telecom can generate sustainable profits given physics and economics.

On trades at only 50% premium to Nike despite 35% vs 0% growth, 63% vs 41% gross margins, and double the EBITDA margin; premium brand resilience in recession makes risk-reward exc…

On trades at only 50% premium to Nike (1.7x EV/Sales) but grows 35% vs flat, with industry-leading 63% gross margins (Nike 41%) and double the EBITDA margin; recession-resilient h…

Uber owns ride-hail/food delivery demand (smiling curve); autonomy expands supply 3-5x and cuts cost/mile from $2-3 to ~$1, dramatically expanding TAM; off-hours robotics delivery…

Excluding 50% BetMGM stake and 56% Macau subsidiary, the core Las Vegas business trades at 3-4x cash flow; buying back 10-15% of shares annually; Japan integrated resort (opens 20…

Stripping out 50% BetMGM stake and 56% Macau stake, core MGM trades at 3-4x cash flow driving 10-15% annual buybacks; Japan integrated resort opening 2030 could be worth more than…

Lyft trades at 11x earnings with growing free cash flow as clear #2 to Uber; believes Amazon acquires Lyft by year-end; owned as value complement to Uber's growth profile in ride-…

Lyft is the #2 ride-hail player trading at 11x earnings with growing free cash flow; benefits from same autonomy tailwinds as Uber; Amazon likely acquires Lyft to enter mobility g…

TransMedics popular on social media but forward PE 32x, EV/Sales >4x; quarterly growth has flattened; on watchlist of ~20 names for potential dislocation buying but thesis not con…

Celsius was growing organically but the Alani Nu acquisition signaled a shift away from the core growth engine; took profits because the forward trajectory no longer matched the o…

Oracle's cloud infrastructure play resembles a utility but without profitability, using massive debt; neoclouds generally are high-risk with unclear sustainable business models.

Oracle cited as example of neo-cloud model - unprofitable, debt-heavy, utility-like with high risk; has been correct on Oracle underperformance for past year.

Cava trades at ~8x EV/Sales and 145x PE; same-store sales turned negative recently; restaurants are brutally competitive and hit saturation walls; no personal product experience a…

Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Redwire all unprofitable with unclear competitive advantages vs SpaceX; SpaceX IPO imminent (1-2 months) will dominate capital and attention; space econom…

Uber owns ride-sharing/food delivery demand (smiling curve); autonomy shifts supply from human drivers ($2-3/mile) to robotaxis (~$1/mile) with 24/7 availability, dramatically exp…

Solid-state batteries could be disruptive but QuantumScape lost $435M on zero revenue; solar industry saw exponential cost declines and demand growth yet almost no company made mo…

Solid-state batteries could be transformative like solar, but QuantumScape lost $435M on zero revenue; solar costs plummeted and demand exploded yet almost no public solar company…

Traditional 6% broker model broken - brokers just pull Zillow to answer questions; Zillow's AI presentation shows path to disintermediate brokers; OpenDoor model unsustainable ($1…

Opendoor's iBuying model lost $1.3B in latest year; stock rallied but fundamentals deteriorating; AI-driven platforms like Zillow will disintermediate brokers entirely, making Ope…

Personal dislike for Reddit product creates blind spot; acknowledges they monetize content for LLMs but refuses to invest in company he doesn't understand or use.

Reddit monetizes content for LLM training but personal aversion to the product creates analytical blind spot; acknowledges this as a limitation rather than a fundamental bear case.