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$ONON

On Running
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On Holding designs and sells performance running shoes and athletic apparel under the On brand.

sentiment mix
bull 100%bear 0%neu 0%

signal summary

latest high-conviction thesis
On Holding compounding at 20% CAGR with 64% gross margins at 19x forward earnings▾

Revenue growing steadily in constant currency; gross margins expanded from 60% target to 64% showing exceptional pricing power in footwear; $1.4B cash on balance sheet; EV/sales 3x with 20% 3-yr CAGR; held for ~3 years despite market indifference.

travis hoiumT2Asymmetric Investing2026-07-24
confidence 78 / 100impact High
key themes
  • Autonomous Vehicles40%
  • AI Infrastructure33%
  • AI Economics & Business Models33%
  • Public Markets & Valuation33%
  • AI Applications33%

bull thesis · 22

90 / 100
  • •Chamath identifies On Running as primary beneficiary of Nike's retail collapse
  • •Friedberg & Jason: On Running captures Nike defectors via excellence positioning
  • •On Holding compounding at 20% CAGR with 64% gross margins at 19x forward earnings

bear thesis · 0

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mentions · 22

All-In PodcastAI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 13 days ago
0:0026:0052:001:18:001:45:00
Asymmetric InvestingIs On Heading For Disaster?3 mentions · 3▲ 0▼ 0○ · last month
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Asymmetric InvestingAsk Me Anything: July 2026 Edition2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 2 months ago
0:0013:0027:0041:0055:00
Asymmetric Investing5 Overlooked Stocks to Buy Now1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 3 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Asymmetric InvestingStop Buying Mega-Caps: 5 Asymmetric Bets for 10x Gains | $ONON $HIMS $ZETA $UBER $SOFI1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Asymmetric InvestingThe 7 Stocks I'm Buying Before They Explode2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 4 months ago
0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Asymmetric InvestingThe HUGE Growth Stock Nobody Sees Coming | $ONON1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Asymmetric Investing5 Stocks I Love in May2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Asymmetric InvestingAsymmetric Investing April AMA1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 5 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Asymmetric InvestingNike Stock Is Still Broken | Here's Why You Should Avoid It1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Asymmetric InvestingAsymmetric Investing AMA2 mentions · 2▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
0:0016:0032:0048:001:05:00
Asymmetric InvestingWhy On Holding's Stock Crashed 11% After CEO Exit1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 6 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Asymmetric InvestingTop Stocks to Double Up on Right Now1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
0:003:007:0011:0015:00
Asymmetric InvestingIs On Holding's Stock a Steal at These Prices?1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 7 months ago
0:002:005:007:0010:00
Acquired10 Years of Acquired (with Michael Lewis)1 mentions · 1▲ 0▼ 0○ · 9 months ago
0:0043:001:27:002:11:002:55:00