▶ 4:00 · $ANTHROPIC · More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts

episode briefing

All-In Podcast

More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts

2026-07-11 · 15 company · 13 thematic

sentiment

11 bull0 bear4 neu

speakers

brad gerstner

Founder and CEO of Altimeter Capital, a technology investment firm, and host of the BG2 podcast. Known for concentrated growth bets and widely-read public memos on big tech.

jason calacanis

Angel investor, host of This Week in Startups and co-host of the All-In podcast. An early investor in Uber, Robinhood and Calm.

david sacks

Co-founder of Craft Ventures and a co-host of the All-In podcast. Part of the PayPal mafia and founder of Yammer; active on AI and tech policy.

quote

“two weeks ago, Gavin Baker, another bestie, said he thinks they're going to end 2026 with over a hundred billion dollars in revenue and very profitable. He said a couple of us guests on the program that he thinks it would trade at three tr…”

—jason calacanis

episode shorts · 3

Jason Calacanis: Trump Accounts Could Save the American Dream

Brad Gerstner: Companies Will Pay 5x More for the Best AI

"We've never seen anything like this." - Brad Gerstner on Anthr…

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$ANTHROPICbullish· highjason calacanis

Baker via Calacanis: Anthropic to hit $100B+ revenue in 2026, worth $3T today

Gavin Baker projects Anthropic will exit 2026 with over $100B in revenue and high profitability, implying a current fair value of $3T if public, based on the revenue trajectory an…

$SPCX···bullish· high· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: SpaceX IPO was textbook, up 25% on 35B forward revenue

SpaceX's $75B raise at $1.75T valuation pioneered a blueprint for mega-IPOs with staged lockups, early index inclusion, and pricing that left room for 25% post-IPO appreciation, p…

$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Altimeter buyer at scale in Anthropic IPO, $100B+ revenue trajectory

Anthropic is accidentally profitable with revenue trending over $100B, making it a blockbuster IPO candidate following the SpaceX blueprint; Altimeter would participate at scale g…

$OPENAIbullish· high· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: OpenAI regaining mojo with GPT-6, $70B revenue, Altimeter buyer

OpenAI has recovered momentum with a new model generation (GPT-6) imminent and revenue rumored at $70B, making it a premier frontier lab IPO candidate despite corporate restructur…

$UBER···bullish· mediumjason calacanis

Calacanis: Uber CTO reports 99% engineers using AI, 70% PRs agent-generated, 200 agentic skills built

Uber demonstrates mature enterprise AI adoption: near-universal developer usage, majority of code changes agent-driven, and a systematic 'agentic pod' model embedding engineers in…

$NVDA···bullish· highbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Nvidia using AI to design next-gen chips — machine building the machine

Nvidia's internal use of frontier AI models for chip design creates a self-reinforcing moat: the best models design better chips, which enable better models, making Jensen Huang u…

$TAO···bullish· medium· posjason calacanis

Calacanis: TAO subnet serving GLM 5.2 at 95% lower token cost, enabling agent scaling

Bittensor's decentralized inference network (TAO) provides GLM 5.2 and other models at 95% cost reduction, allowing Calacanis to scale agent runs from daily to hourly and multiply…

$DASH···bullish· mediumjason calacanis

Calacanis: DoorDash CTO validates open-weight models for code review via internal benchmarks

DoorDash proves technically sophisticated enterprises can safely route non-critical workloads to open-weight models (Kimi 2.6) while reserving frontier models (Claude) for hardest…

$META···neutral· mediumbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Meta flubbed open-source scorched-earth, now launching price war at 1/100th cost

Meta initially failed to fully commoditize the model layer with Llama but is now pivoting to aggressive price competition with Spark 1.1, offering frontier-quality agentic coding…

$DATABRICKSbullish· mediumjason calacanis

Calacanis: Databricks found 2x token savings via harness optimization on same GLM 5.2 model

Databricks discovered that optimizing the agent harness (routing, memory, skills) around a fixed model (GLM 5.2) cuts token costs by 50%, proving infrastructure-layer efficiency g…

$LOVABLEbullish· mediumjason calacanis

Calacanis: Lovable scaled $100M to $600M ARR in 2 years, building own models to leave frontier labs

Lovable, a vibe-coding platform, grew revenue 6x in two years while spending tens of millions on frontier models, but is now developing proprietary vertical models to achieve AI s…

$ELEVENLABSbullish· mediumjason calacanis

Calacanis: ElevenLabs building proprietary voice models despite $10M+ frontier spend

ElevenLabs, a major frontier model customer spending eight figures annually, is developing its own vertical voice models to avoid data leakage and competitive risk, illustrating t…

$ZHIPUneutral· mediumdavid sacks

Sacks: China's GLM 5.2 shows watermarks of OpenAI distillation, heading closed-source

Z.ai's GLM 5.2 has caught up to US frontier models partly through distillation of OpenAI outputs (evidenced by watermarks), and China is now moving to restrict access to its top m…

$BABA···neutral· lowdavid sacks

Sacks: Alibaba's Qwen moving closed-source after catching frontier

Alibaba's Qwen model was open-source but is now going closed as it approaches frontier parity, following the same strategic pattern as OpenAI and Z.ai: open to build community, cl…

$MU···neutral· lowjason calacanis

Calacanis: Micron commits $250M to Trump Accounts, up to $1,000 per employee

Micron's employer contribution to the new Trump Accounts program signals corporate adoption of the tax-advantaged savings vehicle, potentially establishing a precedent for broad-b…

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