S&P 500 at 27x PE with 17 years since real recession; 20-50% drawdown possible
S&P 500 PE near dot-com highs (27x vs 46x peak); 17 years without normal recession (2008, 2000-03); oil shock ($150-200/bbl) could trigger recessionary spiral; multiple compression alone from 27x to 15x implies >20% drop before earnings decline; Nasdaq already in correction territory.