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$ANTHROPIC · Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1
now playing · $ANTHROPIC
$ANTHROPICbullish· highrory o'driscoll
Anthropic $30B raise at $900B is best trade in venture at 18x ARR growing 10x YoY
At 18x June ARR growing 10x YoY with de-risked IPO path, Anthropic offers lower multiple than early-stage deals for higher growth; smart capital allocators (GreenOaks, Alimta) tre…
$OPENAIneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
OpenAI pushes max valuation with complex deal structures vs Anthropic's clean fast rounds
Sam Altman pushes valuations to the absolute maximum with complex structures (SoftBank borrowing, contingent tranches) while Dario Amodei prefers clean, fast, slightly discounted…
$CRM···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Salesforce spends $300M on Anthropic tokens (~$15-20K/engineer) but may only be 25% of full AI adoption
At $300M (~4% of engineering payroll), Salesforce's token spend is table stakes; to justify Anthropic/OpenAI trillion-dollar TAMs, enterprises must spend ~20% of engineering salar…
$KVYO···bullish· mediumjason lemkin
Klaviyo CEO requires all product-adjacent staff to code with agents; AI VP Marketing costs ~$257/month — token costs lower than feared
Real-world data point: fully agentic workflows at scale cost ~$250/month per 'AI employee'. Bare case for token spend is $1K/month per knowledge worker, not $10-20K. Token intensi…
$TEAM···bullish· mediumjason lemkin
Atlassian re-accelerating to 30%+ growth driven by Rovo AI agent
Founder-led SaaS companies with installed bases (Atlassian, Figma, HubSpot) have time to integrate AI agents and re-accelerate growth; Rovo agent driving meaningful revenue inflec…
$TWLO···bullish· lowjason lemkin
Twilio back from the dead to 20% growth — AI tailwind helping communication APIs
Twilio's communication APIs benefiting from AI agent proliferation needing voice/SMS channels; growth re-acceleration suggests AI demand lifting legacy platforms.
$HUBS···neutral· mediumjason lemkin
HubSpot guided Q2 tougher, stock hit hard — must show AI agent (Breeze) revenue to re-rate
Market now demands visible AI revenue contribution, not just promises. HubSpot has 300K customers waiting for Breeze AI agents but product not in market yet; stock punished for gu…
$MNDY···bullish· lowrory o'driscoll
Monday beat expectations and bounced — showing AI integration can re-accelerate SaaS
Monday.com demonstrated that AI feature integration can drive immediate stock re-rating; proof point for other SaaS companies that execution matters more than narrative.
$DDOG···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Datadog hits $1B quarter at 32% growth; now fairly valued at 17-18x sales after 2021 excess
Fundamentals strong ($4B+ ARR, 32% growth) but valuation reset permanent; good companies now trade 6-18x sales vs 50x in 2021. Datadog at ~17-18x is 'good performance' tier but wi…
$FIG···bullish· mediumjason lemkin
Figma re-accelerating (NDR 139%) as beneficiary of software explosion; AI agents to boost expansion revenue 50%+
Figma missed the vibe-coding race but benefits from massive software creation boom; new internal AI agents that update designs from prompts can extract 50%+ more revenue from exis…
$WIX···bearish· highrory o'driscoll
Wix down 45% post-buyback; core business terminal from vibe coding and Shopify dominance
Wix/Squarespace core business is terminal: vibe coding (Lovable, Replit) replaces low-end sites, Shopify destroyed low-end ecommerce. $150M Base44 ARR is substitution not growth.…
$BIGC···bearish· highjason lemkin
BigCommerce dead in the water — destroyed by Shopify's upmarket/downmarket squeeze
Shopify simultaneously went upmarket and downmarket, eliminating the entire low-end ecommerce platform tier (WooCommerce, Wix, Squarespace, BigCommerce). No rational reason to cho…
$SQSP···bearish· highjason lemkin
Squarespace also terminal — same vibe coding + Shopify squeeze as Wix
Same dual destruction as Wix: non-tech users vibe-code better sites in 10 mins; Shopify crushed low-end ecommerce. No reason to use sub-Shopify platforms.
$SHOP···bullish· mediumjason lemkin
Shopify uniquely destroyed all low-end ecommerce competitors by going upmarket and downmarket simultaneously
Shopify's strategic execution eliminated an entire competitor tier (Wix, Squarespace, BigCommerce, WooCommerce) by serving both enterprise and SMB better than specialized low-end…
$NBIS···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Nebius growing 684% — pure compute starvation play; survives only if data center permitting lag prevents overbuild
Nebius/CoreWeave win if compute stays scarce (permitting delays save us from overbuild). If capex builds all planned capacity and token revenue falls short (trillion capex vs half…
$MRVL···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
South Bay semiconductor/optical/memory names (Marvell, SanDisk, Micron, Cisco) all on fire — only traditional software not inflating
Hyperscaler capex ($750B-1T/yr) flows 50% to Nvidia, 10% power, 10% networking, rest to semis/optical/memory. Everything tied to AI infrastructure buildout is inflating; only lega…
$CSCO···bullish· lowrory o'driscoll
Cisco back — networking infrastructure beneficiary of hyperscaler AI buildout
Networking/optical infrastructure (10% of hyperscaler capex) pulling Cisco up with the AI infrastructure tide.
$SNDK···bullish· lowrory o'driscoll
SanDisk/Micron memory plays benefiting from AI infrastructure capex wave
Memory and storage vendors caught in AI capex updraft; but cyclical history (Micron booms/busts like 19th century prospectors) makes long shorts dangerous.
$MU···neutral· lowrory o'driscoll
Micron cyclical beneficiary of AI capex but history of violent booms/busts makes timing perilous
AI-driven demand supercycle lifting memory prices, but Micron's history of extreme cyclicality means shorting 3 years out is impossible to time; structural demand shift but cyclic…
$CRWV···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
CoreWeave and Nebius are the same bet: compute scarcity vs overbuild; Rory passed on a CoreWeave competitor seed last week
Neoclouds are a pure bet on compute demand outpacing supply for 3+ years. Rory analyzed a seed-stage CoreWeave competitor with strong team and compelling marginal-capacity argumen…
$CBRS···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Cerebras IPO pops 68% — N-of-1 semiconductor play with OpenAI as marquee customer at perfect timing
Extraordinary tech (wafer-scale) + inference boom + OpenAI customer + semiconductor/inference/OpenAI all hot = perfect IPO storm. But Rory won't chase post-pop: base rates on buyi…
$SPCX···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
SpaceX S-1 filing for $1.75T IPO shows 2023 financials (pre-AI deals); 30% retail allocation could drive meme-style pop
S-1 will show Dec 2023 standalone SpaceX/Starlink (~$18B rev, 30% growth, EBITDA+) but excludes X.ai, Cerebras, Anthropic deals that transform economics. At 100x revenue, it's pri…
$OPENAIbullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
OpenAI offering $2M token credits to every YC startup — signals surplus compute capacity vs Anthropic constraint
Giving away $2M tokens per YC company (300/batch = $600M/batch) only makes sense if OpenAI has spare capacity. Anchors YC valuations at $100M post, reduces VC ownership needs, ena…
$ANTHROPICneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Anthropic capacity constrained — cannot match OpenAI's YC token giveaway; $300M YC tokens would cost $1.2-2B/year in foregone revenue at 18x
OpenAI's token giveaway implies surplus compute; Anthropic's constraint means every token given away is a token not sold to Bank of America at 18x valuation multiple. $300M/quarte…