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$SEATGEEK · Frankel still holds every SeatGeek share from 2010: top-3 ticketing platform
now playing · $SEATGEEK
$SEATGEEKbullish· high· posdavid frankel
Frankel still holds every SeatGeek share from 2010: top-3 ticketing platform
SeatGeek has become a top-three global ticketing business, but liquidity takes extreme patience — 15+ years and counting — and the fund has never sold a share despite the long hol…
$SHIELD-AIbullish· high· posdavid frankel
Shield AI thesis: AI layer on commoditized drones/hardware is the real value
All hardware (drones, cameras, sensors) is now commoditized; the defensible moat is the AI software stack that makes autonomous systems work — applied AI on cheap platforms.
$REBARbullish· medium· posdavid frankel
Rebar: vertical AI for HVAC quoting — founder edge from family business
Rebar automates HVAC quoting for 100k+ mechanical engineers; the founder grew up in his uncle's rolled-up HVAC business, giving him deep vertical edge that generic AI cannot repli…
$UBER···neutral· medium· posdavid frankel
Frankel admits selling Uber early at $10B; still net long at IPO
Founder Collective sold some Uber around $10B valuation (likely too early) but remained net long through IPO; illustrates the difficulty of timing exits in compounding winners.
$WHOOPneutral· medium· posdavid frankel
Whoop vs Suno: hardware path means high dilution vs AI speed means low dilution
Whoop's hardware journey required many capital-intensive rounds (high dilution), while Suno's pure-software AI momentum enabled rapid markup with minimal dilution — business model…
$OLO···neutral· medium· posdavid frankel
Olo exit at $2B after 17 years: great journey but IRR not amazing
Olo was a 17-year journey to a $2B take-private by Thoma Bravo — a wonderful founder partnership but suboptimal IRR, illustrating the tension between venture returns and relations…
$WIX···neutral· lowdavid frankel
Wix trading at 1x revenue shows market irrationality but price is the market
Wix at 2.1B market cap on 2.1B revenue exemplifies irrational pricing, but fighting the market's valuation is futile — capital must flow with the tide.
$ELEVENLABSneutral· highdavid frankel
Missed ElevenLabs, Granola, StarCloud, Fractile due to ownership discipline
Founder Collective passed on several breakout AI companies (ElevenLabs, Granola, StarCloud, Fractile) solely because they couldn't get target ownership — costing hundreds of milli…
$CURSORneutral· lowdavid frankel
Cursor at $26B post / $60B exit example of billion-dollar Series A new normal
Cursor's valuation trajectory ($26B post, potential $60B exit) exemplifies the new reality where $1B+ valuations are effectively the new Series A price for elite AI companies.
$COGNITIONneutral· lowdavid frankel
Cognition at $26B valuation cited as example of billion-dollar Series A norm
Cognition's $26B valuation is cited as evidence that top-tier AI companies now command billion-dollar-plus entry prices, reshaping seed fund economics.
$MCCORneutral· lowdavid frankel
Mccor at $20B valuation cited as example of billion-dollar Series A norm
Mccor's $20B valuation is cited as evidence that top-tier AI companies now command billion-dollar-plus entry prices, reshaping seed fund economics.
$VIVA···bullish· mediumdavid frankel
SaaS apocalypse overshooting: buy basket of beaten-up embedded SaaS leaders
The SaaS selloff has thrown the baby out with the bathwater; deeply embedded, mission-critical SaaS (Veeva, Olo, Airtable) are hard to displace, and a basket of these discounted l…
$RAMPneutral· mediumdavid frankel
Ramp's $500M at $40B shows new normal: huge rounds, minimal dilution
Top companies now raise massive rounds at huge valuations with surprisingly little dilution — a brilliant product for founders that normalizes continuous funding at scale.
$GOOGL···bullish· mediumdavid frankel
Google is a net AI winner and in pole position due to search-with-context advantage
Google's core search-with-context capability gives it a structural edge in AI; despite narrative of disruption, Frankel believes Google is a net winner and well-positioned for the…
$MSFT···bearish· mediumdavid frankel
Microsoft has done a crappy job on AI; its offering feels second-rate vs top models
Microsoft's AI execution has been poor and its models feel inferior to the leading frontier models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google), putting it at risk of losing platform relevance.
$SIMILEYbullish· mediumdavid frankel
Similey: enterprises will spend $100-200M on single model inference for critical decisions
Simulation-market company Similey predicts Fortune 500 firms (P&G, Coca-Cola, Nvidia, Visa) and governments will pay $100-200M for a single high-stakes model output — a new paradi…
$NVDA···bearish· mediumdavid frankel
Photonic computing will disrupt Nvidia or force acquisition of optical chip startups
Photonic/optical computing — using light instead of electricity for chip interconnects and eventually compute — will solve data-center energy constraints and disrupt Nvidia's domi…
$SUNObullish· mediumdavid frankel
Suno at $5B: betting on creation-to-consumption pivot to disrupt Spotify
Investors at the $5B round are underwriting Suno as a potential Spotify/Apple Music disruptor, but the critical leap is moving from a creation tool to a consumption platform — the…