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Enterprise Software · Pre-AI SaaS facing accelerating terminal decay from AI-native alternatives
now playing · Enterprise Software
AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10rory o'driscoll
Enterprise AI shifting to cost-per-task, tiered models, token maxing
CIOs moving from cost-per-token to cost-per-completed-task; every company will need tiered model strategy (frontier for complex, cheap for volume); developer token consumption exploding as…
AI Economics & Business Modelsriskscore 9/10rory o'driscoll
Foundation models approaching hard TAM ceiling in software spend
OpenAI/Anthropic revenue growing at unprecedented rates but US software engineering spend only $250B total; already capturing ~20% — next 12 months will test if growth decelerates or CFOs r…
Enterprise Softwareheadwindscore 9/10jason lemkin
Pre-AI SaaS facing accelerating terminal decay from AI-native alternatives
Legacy SaaS (Marketo, etc.) seeing renewal cycles collapse from years to days due to AI-native switching; Constellation's 3x revenue rollup bets on 10+ year cash flows that may not material…
Memory & Storageheadwindscore 8/10rory o'driscoll
Memory oligopoly at peak cyclical margins, correction inevitable
Three memory companies (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) are peak beneficiaries of AI capex, trading at 5-8x P/E with 70% net margins, but historical cyclicality suggests inevitable correction wh…
Venture Capitaltailwindscore 8/10rory o'driscoll
Late-stage growth funds replacing public markets, secondaries highly liquid
New asset class of late-stage private funds (Altimeter, Thrive) replacing public markets for high-growth companies; secondary markets now highly liquid enabling early exits; fund size disci…
AI Drug Discoverymixedscore 7/10rory o'driscoll
AI drug discovery business model uncertain: platform vs biotech economics
AI drug discovery companies (Isomorphic, Chai, Latent Labs) attracting massive capital but unclear if they follow platform/LLM economics (winner-take-most) or traditional biotech economics…