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$ADYEY · Own Adyen as cloud payments leader taking share from Worldpay; 5% penetration of $80T market
now playing · $ADYEY
$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posalex
Whale Rock's highest conviction position: Anthropic leads enterprise AI coding with recursive improvement flywheel
Anthropic has emerged as the leader in the critical coding use case, with agentic tools driving $100/day/user spend implying a half-trillion dollar TAM; its focus on enterprise, r…
$ADYEY···bullish· high· posalex
Own Adyen as cloud payments leader taking share from Worldpay; 5% penetration of $80T market
Adyen is a next-gen cloud payments company displacing legacy players like Worldpay in a massive $80T market with only 5% cloud penetration; deep customer diligence (200 calls) con…
$STRIPEbullish· high· posalex
First private investment in 2020 at $35B; knew TPV >$1T and take rates implied massive profitability
Invested in Stripe at $35B valuation in April 2020 after deep diligence on TPV (>$500B disclosed, actually ~$1T) and take rates (40-50bps vs Adyen's 25-30bps); understood Coke/Pep…
$AMZN···bullish· medium· posalex
AWS winner-take-most cloud play bought 'for free'; Amazon absent in foundational models
Amazon won the cloud war early with a 7-year lead, building ecosystem and scale moats; however, it never meaningfully competed in foundational models, leaving that layer to the th…
$CLS···bullish· high· posalex
Celestica: sole Google TPU supplier, liquid cooling leader, 50-60% cloud Ethernet switch share, 35-50% topline CAGR
Celestica transformed from a commoditized contract manufacturer to critical AI infrastructure partner: sole supplier of Google TPU servers, dominant in cloud Ethernet switching (5…
$ELITE-MATERIALSbullish· medium· posalex
Elite Materials: leading copper clad laminate supplier for AI server PCBs, benefiting from layer count and ASP expansion
Elite Materials supplies the critical copper clad laminate for high-layer-count AI server PCBs (40 layers vs 10 for traditional); unit growth, rising layer counts, and ASP increas…
$GLW···bullish· high· posalex
Corning: dominant fiber optics for AI data centers, scale-up fiber replacement of copper offers 2-3x opportunity
Corning holds ridiculously high share of data center fiber; AI clusters require 10x more fiber (thinner, more bendable, custom specs), and the coming shift from copper to fiber fo…
$AEIS···bullish· high· posalex
Advanced Energy: power supply beneficiary of AI rack power intensity, ASPs growing 40% annually
Same thesis as Delta: AI server power demand up 50-125% per rack drives sustained ASP growth and margin expansion for power supply leaders.
$2308.TW···bullish· high· posalex
Delta Electronics and Advanced Energy: power supply ASPs rising 40% annually for 4 years on Nvidia rack power demand
Each Nvidia chip/rack uses 50-125% more power, driving power supply ASPs up ~40% per year for the next four years with higher margins; Delta and Advanced Energy are key beneficiar…
$APP···bullish· high· posalex
AppLovin: research team cracked adtech turnaround before market; best research award winner
Analysts Michael and Sam deeply researched AppLovin's pivot in adtech (historically a terrible industry), built management relationship with Adam Foroughi, and identified the infl…
$ASML···bullish· high· posalex
ASML: critical IP monopoly in EUV lithography, structural AI beneficiary in Mega Cap Fund
ASML holds critical intellectual property — you cannot make leading-edge chips without its EUV lithography — making it a durable, high-moat beneficiary of the AI semiconductor cap…
$TSM···bullish· high· posalex
TSMC core holding in Mega Cap Tech Fund, extremely levered to AI semiconductor manufacturing
TSMC is a structural winner in the Mega Cap Tech Fund as the foundry leader with irreplaceable critical IP (like ASML) for advanced AI chips; the fund targets alpha in mega caps w…
$META···neutral· lowalex
Meta attempted foundational models but faltered and rebooted; now a key compute buyer
Meta's early foundational model effort failed and required a total reboot; however, as a massive compute buyer, it remains critical to the infrastructure demand story.
$GOOGL···bullish· high· posalex
Google is a largest position and third horse in foundational model oligopoly with superior PDF ingestion
Google's Gemini is a core holding and one of three surviving foundational model leaders; it holds differentiated IP in long-context PDF ingestion and benefits from massive compute…
$OPENAIbullish· mediumalex
OpenAI: consumer winner, improving in enterprise/coding, part of three-horse oligopoly with Anthropic and Google
OpenAI leads consumer (ChatGPT) and is catching up in enterprise and coding; together with Anthropic and Google, forms a stable oligopoly where leaders compound advantages via sca…
$NVDA···bullish· high· posalex
Bought Nvidia at 4x earnings in 2023; compute demand still in early innings with L-curve adoption
Nvidia was purchased at 4x earnings in 2023 as the clear winner in AI compute; the infrastructure layer is only 10% penetrated and compute demand grows 10x yearly, far outpacing M…
$CRM···bearish· mediumalex
Salesforce: AI revenue only 1-2% of $40B; rule of 40 pressure, seat compression, budget cannibalization
Traditional SaaS incumbents like Salesforce face structural headwinds: AI budget cannibalization, seat reduction from automation, pricing pressure, and inability to build agentic…
$AVGO···bullish· mediumalex
Broadcom: critical partner for Celestica's SONiC Ethernet switching, key AI networking silicon supplier
Broadcom works closely with Celestica on the open-source SONiC software layer for Ethernet switching and supplies the merchant silicon for AI networking, benefiting from the annua…
$SIERRAneutral· lowalex
Sierra (Brett Taylor): watched closely as potential breakout AI application company; not invested
Brett Taylor (ex-Salesforce CEO, Google Maps creator, Facebook CTO) building Sierra in AI applications; application layer still early and unclear, but Taylor's pedigree makes it a…
$000660.KS···bullish· high· posalex
SK Hynix: extremely levered to AI via HBM memory, critical IP in stacked high-bandwidth memory
SK Hynix (referred to as Heinix) dominates high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — 10-chip stacked DRAM with 10x I/O — a critical bottleneck for AI accelerators requiring multi-generation c…
$MSFT···neutral· lowalex
Microsoft: Copilot early coding tool ($20/mo), now building own models; Azure cloud beneficiary
Microsoft's first-gen Copilot was a modest coding assistant; they are now trying to build proprietary models to reduce dependence on OpenAI, while Azure benefits as a cloud platfo…