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▶ 3:00 · $META · Why the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

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$META···neutral· lowalex

Meta attempted foundational models but faltered and rebooted; now a key compute buyer

Meta's early foundational model effort failed and required a total reboot; however, as a massive compute buyer, it remains critical to the infrastructure demand story.

$GOOGL···bullish· high· posalex

Google is a largest position and third horse in foundational model oligopoly with superior PDF ingestion

Google's Gemini is a core holding and one of three surviving foundational model leaders; it holds differentiated IP in long-context PDF ingestion and benefits from massive compute…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumalex

OpenAI: consumer winner, improving in enterprise/coding, part of three-horse oligopoly with Anthropic and Google

OpenAI leads consumer (ChatGPT) and is catching up in enterprise and coding; together with Anthropic and Google, forms a stable oligopoly where leaders compound advantages via sca…

$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posalex

Whale Rock's highest conviction position: Anthropic leads enterprise AI coding with recursive improvement flywheel

Anthropic has emerged as the leader in the critical coding use case, with agentic tools driving $100/day/user spend implying a half-trillion dollar TAM; its focus on enterprise, r…

$MSFT···neutral· lowalex

Microsoft: Copilot early coding tool ($20/mo), now building own models; Azure cloud beneficiary

Microsoft's first-gen Copilot was a modest coding assistant; they are now trying to build proprietary models to reduce dependence on OpenAI, while Azure benefits as a cloud platfo…

$ADYEY···bullish· high· posalex

Own Adyen as cloud payments leader taking share from Worldpay; 5% penetration of $80T market

Adyen is a next-gen cloud payments company displacing legacy players like Worldpay in a massive $80T market with only 5% cloud penetration; deep customer diligence (200 calls) con…

$STRIPEbullish· high· posalex

First private investment in 2020 at $35B; knew TPV >$1T and take rates implied massive profitability

Invested in Stripe at $35B valuation in April 2020 after deep diligence on TPV (>$500B disclosed, actually ~$1T) and take rates (40-50bps vs Adyen's 25-30bps); understood Coke/Pep…

$AMZN···bullish· medium· posalex

AWS winner-take-most cloud play bought 'for free'; Amazon absent in foundational models

Amazon won the cloud war early with a 7-year lead, building ecosystem and scale moats; however, it never meaningfully competed in foundational models, leaving that layer to the th…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posalex

Bought Nvidia at 4x earnings in 2023; compute demand still in early innings with L-curve adoption

Nvidia was purchased at 4x earnings in 2023 as the clear winner in AI compute; the infrastructure layer is only 10% penetrated and compute demand grows 10x yearly, far outpacing M…

$CRM···bearish· mediumalex

Salesforce: AI revenue only 1-2% of $40B; rule of 40 pressure, seat compression, budget cannibalization

Traditional SaaS incumbents like Salesforce face structural headwinds: AI budget cannibalization, seat reduction from automation, pricing pressure, and inability to build agentic…

$CLS···bullish· high· posalex

Celestica: sole Google TPU supplier, liquid cooling leader, 50-60% cloud Ethernet switch share, 35-50% topline CAGR

Celestica transformed from a commoditized contract manufacturer to critical AI infrastructure partner: sole supplier of Google TPU servers, dominant in cloud Ethernet switching (5…

$AVGO···bullish· mediumalex

Broadcom: critical partner for Celestica's SONiC Ethernet switching, key AI networking silicon supplier

Broadcom works closely with Celestica on the open-source SONiC software layer for Ethernet switching and supplies the merchant silicon for AI networking, benefiting from the annua…

$ELITE-MATERIALSbullish· medium· posalex

Elite Materials: leading copper clad laminate supplier for AI server PCBs, benefiting from layer count and ASP expansion

Elite Materials supplies the critical copper clad laminate for high-layer-count AI server PCBs (40 layers vs 10 for traditional); unit growth, rising layer counts, and ASP increas…

$GLW···bullish· high· posalex

Corning: dominant fiber optics for AI data centers, scale-up fiber replacement of copper offers 2-3x opportunity

Corning holds ridiculously high share of data center fiber; AI clusters require 10x more fiber (thinner, more bendable, custom specs), and the coming shift from copper to fiber fo…

$AEIS···bullish· high· posalex

Advanced Energy: power supply beneficiary of AI rack power intensity, ASPs growing 40% annually

Same thesis as Delta: AI server power demand up 50-125% per rack drives sustained ASP growth and margin expansion for power supply leaders.

$2308.TW···bullish· high· posalex

Delta Electronics and Advanced Energy: power supply ASPs rising 40% annually for 4 years on Nvidia rack power demand

Each Nvidia chip/rack uses 50-125% more power, driving power supply ASPs up ~40% per year for the next four years with higher margins; Delta and Advanced Energy are key beneficiar…

$SIERRAneutral· lowalex

Sierra (Brett Taylor): watched closely as potential breakout AI application company; not invested

Brett Taylor (ex-Salesforce CEO, Google Maps creator, Facebook CTO) building Sierra in AI applications; application layer still early and unclear, but Taylor's pedigree makes it a…

$APP···bullish· high· posalex

AppLovin: research team cracked adtech turnaround before market; best research award winner

Analysts Michael and Sam deeply researched AppLovin's pivot in adtech (historically a terrible industry), built management relationship with Adam Foroughi, and identified the infl…

$ASML···bullish· high· posalex

ASML: critical IP monopoly in EUV lithography, structural AI beneficiary in Mega Cap Fund

ASML holds critical intellectual property — you cannot make leading-edge chips without its EUV lithography — making it a durable, high-moat beneficiary of the AI semiconductor cap…

$TSM···bullish· high· posalex

TSMC core holding in Mega Cap Tech Fund, extremely levered to AI semiconductor manufacturing

TSMC is a structural winner in the Mega Cap Tech Fund as the foundry leader with irreplaceable critical IP (like ASML) for advanced AI chips; the fund targets alpha in mega caps w…

$SKHY···bullish· high· posalex

SK Hynix: extremely levered to AI via HBM memory, critical IP in stacked high-bandwidth memory

SK Hynix (referred to as Heinix) dominates high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — 10-chip stacked DRAM with 10x I/O — a critical bottleneck for AI accelerators requiring multi-generation c…

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