▶ 65:19 · $SPCX · SpaceX faces valuation reset as lockups loom, but remains generational company

episode briefing

Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive

2026-07-31 · 11 company · 17 thematic

sentiment

8 bull0 bear3 neu

speakers

Founder of the investment firm Situational Awareness and author of a widely read essay series on artificial general intelligence and national security. Previously worked on the superalignment team at OpenAI.

richard craig

Founded quant hedge fund Numerai in 2015; background in mathematics and early AI; runs factor-neutral, low-volatility strategy targeting pure alpha; early LP in Polychain Capital.

trey stevens

Co-founded Anduril after identifying defense hardware gap at Founders Fund; early Palantir employee (employee ~13) who built government business; advocates for reindustrialization and product-led defense model.

blake resnick

Founded Brinc to deploy 911 response drones on police/fire station roofs; raised $125M led by Motorola Solutions; builds automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) with battery-swap recharging pods.

quote

“SpaceX has gone public. There's been kind of a reset back to like basically the IPO price. The lockups haven't even released yet. So there's like all these questions about where that's going to stand as that kind of lockup happens over the…”

—trey stevens

now playing · $SPCX

$SITUATIONAL-AWARENESS-LPbullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner

Leopold Aschenbrenner takes full responsibility for -67% July drawdown, sells public book to Citadel to protect LP capital

Fund experienced extreme volatility in AI positions but took decisive action to remove all leverage and preserve private positions; Aschenbrenner remains fully invested alongside…

$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner

Situational Awareness turns down $3.5B Anthropic stake sale to Green Oaks and Sequoia, keeping position

Leopold's fund negotiated a $3.5B sale of its Anthropic stake but pulled out at the last minute to retain the position, signaling high conviction in Anthropic's long-term value de…

$NUMERAIbullish· high· posrichard craig

Numerai targets pure alpha via factor-neutral, low-volatility quant strategy

Numerai hedges thousands of risk factors to isolate true alpha, uses leverage to scale a low-volatility core strategy, aims for consistent 9% alpha annually rather than high-beta…

$NUMERA-AIbullish· high· posrichard craig

Richard Craig explains Numera.ai's pure alpha strategy: hedging thousands of factor risks with high leverage but low volatility

True alpha requires neutralizing all factor risks (market, momentum, sector) so returns are uncorrelated; Numera uses high leverage on a tightly risk-constrained portfolio to achi…

$AMZN···neutral· low· posrichard craig

Numerai founder bought Amazon calls personally, calls it a gamble not alpha

Richard bought Amazon call options based on friend's tip and AI tailwind, made 300%, but explicitly states this is not alpha—just a compensated risk bet that any investor could re…

$POLYCHAINneutral· medium· posrichard craig

Richard Craig invested in Polychain as crypto analog to high-volatility concentrated funds

Polychain represented the crypto version of a concentrated, high-volatility fund; Richard was first and largest LP but didn't expect 1000% returns to persist, viewing it as a risk…

$SPCX···neutral· medium· postrey stevens

SpaceX faces valuation reset as lockups loom, but remains generational company

SpaceX has reset to near IPO price with lockups not yet released; two-year overhang as shares unlock, but still a generational hard-tech success.

$ANDURILbullish· high· postrey stevens

Anduril builds Arsenal 1 factory in 18 months, rolls first Fury autonomous fighter, announces Thunder attack helicopter

Anduril has achieved rapid manufacturing scale (Arsenal 1 operational in 18 months) and is expanding from drones to autonomous fighter aircraft (Fury) and attack helicopters (Thun…

$FOUNDERS-FUNDbullish· hightrey stevens

Founders Fund GP claims Fund II could be greatest venture fund in history

Trey Stevens states Founders Fund's second fund, anchored by SpaceX, may be the best-performing venture fund ever, though he wasn't part of it.

$BRINC-DRONESbullish· high· posblake resnick

Brinc raises $125M led by Motorola to put 911 response drones on every police and fire station roof in America

Brink targets 80,000 police/fire stations with automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) featuring battery-swap recharging, Starlink connectivity, and thermal/visual…

$MSI···bullish· highblake resnick

Motorola Solutions leads Brinc $125M round, provides distribution to every police/fire department and product integration

Motorola is the #1 public safety vendor with pre-existing contracts and relationships at every potential Brink customer; integration includes emergency radio button triggering dro…

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