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▶ 5:59 · $SITUATIONAL-AWARENESS-LP · Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive
episode briefing
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Leopold is Back! Big Tech Earnings, Beautiful Debt, Defense Tech Deep Dive

2026-07-31 · 11 company · 17 thematic
sentiment
8 bull0 bear3 neu
speakers
leopold aschenbrenner

Founder of the investment firm Situational Awareness and author of a widely read essay series on artificial general intelligence and national security. Previously worked on the superalignment team at OpenAI.

richard craig

Founded quant hedge fund Numerai in 2015; background in mathematics and early AI; runs factor-neutral, low-volatility strategy targeting pure alpha; early LP in Polychain Capital.

trey stevens

Co-founded Anduril after identifying defense hardware gap at Founders Fund; early Palantir employee (employee ~13) who built government business; advocates for reindustrialization and product-led defense model.

blake resnick

Founded Brinc to deploy 911 response drones on police/fire station roofs; raised $125M led by Motorola Solutions; builds automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) with battery-swap recharging pods.

quote
“We ultimately found a solution that protected the fund and you as investors. Our intention in running the fund is to never find ourselves in such a position in the first place. Volatility is the price of long-term investment returns. Over…”
—leopold aschenbrenner
now playing · $SITUATIONAL-AWARENESS-LP
$SITUATIONAL-AWARENESS-LPbullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner
Leopold Aschenbrenner takes full responsibility for -67% July drawdown, sells public book to Citadel to protect LP capital
Fund experienced extreme volatility in AI positions but took decisive action to remove all leverage and preserve private positions; Aschenbrenner remains fully invested alongside…
$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner
Situational Awareness turns down $3.5B Anthropic stake sale to Green Oaks and Sequoia, keeping position
Leopold's fund negotiated a $3.5B sale of its Anthropic stake but pulled out at the last minute to retain the position, signaling high conviction in Anthropic's long-term value de…
$NUMERAIbullish· high· posrichard craig
Numerai targets pure alpha via factor-neutral, low-volatility quant strategy
Numerai hedges thousands of risk factors to isolate true alpha, uses leverage to scale a low-volatility core strategy, aims for consistent 9% alpha annually rather than high-beta…
$NUMERA-AIbullish· high· posrichard craig
Richard Craig explains Numera.ai's pure alpha strategy: hedging thousands of factor risks with high leverage but low volatility
True alpha requires neutralizing all factor risks (market, momentum, sector) so returns are uncorrelated; Numera uses high leverage on a tightly risk-constrained portfolio to achi…
$AMZN···neutral· low· posrichard craig
Numerai founder bought Amazon calls personally, calls it a gamble not alpha
Richard bought Amazon call options based on friend's tip and AI tailwind, made 300%, but explicitly states this is not alpha—just a compensated risk bet that any investor could re…
$POLYCHAINneutral· medium· posrichard craig
Richard Craig invested in Polychain as crypto analog to high-volatility concentrated funds
Polychain represented the crypto version of a concentrated, high-volatility fund; Richard was first and largest LP but didn't expect 1000% returns to persist, viewing it as a risk…
$SPCX···neutral· medium· postrey stevens
SpaceX faces valuation reset as lockups loom, but remains generational company
SpaceX has reset to near IPO price with lockups not yet released; two-year overhang as shares unlock, but still a generational hard-tech success.
$ANDURILbullish· high· postrey stevens
Anduril builds Arsenal 1 factory in 18 months, rolls first Fury autonomous fighter, announces Thunder attack helicopter
Anduril has achieved rapid manufacturing scale (Arsenal 1 operational in 18 months) and is expanding from drones to autonomous fighter aircraft (Fury) and attack helicopters (Thun…
$FOUNDERS-FUNDbullish· hightrey stevens
Founders Fund GP claims Fund II could be greatest venture fund in history
Trey Stevens states Founders Fund's second fund, anchored by SpaceX, may be the best-performing venture fund ever, though he wasn't part of it.
$BRINC-DRONESbullish· high· posblake resnick
Brinc raises $125M led by Motorola to put 911 response drones on every police and fire station roof in America
Brink targets 80,000 police/fire stations with automated drone-in-a-box systems (Responder, Guardian) featuring battery-swap recharging, Starlink connectivity, and thermal/visual…
$MSI···bullish· highblake resnick
Motorola Solutions leads Brinc $125M round, provides distribution to every police/fire department and product integration
Motorola is the #1 public safety vendor with pre-existing contracts and relationships at every potential Brink customer; integration includes emergency radio button triggering dro…