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▶ 2:37 · $NVDA · Leopold Aschenbrenner - 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, and the return of history
episode briefing
Dwarkesh Patel

Leopold Aschenbrenner - 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, and the return of history

2024-06-04 · 8 company · 19 thematic
sentiment
7 bull1 bear0 neu
speakers
leopold aschenbrenner

Founder of the investment firm Situational Awareness and author of a widely read essay series on artificial general intelligence and national security. Previously worked on the superalignment team at OpenAI.

quote
“Within a year, Nvidia data center revenue has gone from a few billion a quarter to $25 billion a quarter and continues to go up. Big Tech capex is skyrocketing.”
—leopold aschenbrenner
now playing · $NVDA
$NVDA···bullish· highleopold aschenbrenner
Industrial AI buildout puts Nvidia on a trillion-dollar demand curve
Frontier AI requires exponentially larger clusters, power plants and eventually new semiconductor fabs rather than merely more software. If training compute continues scaling at i…
$MSFT···bullish· highleopold aschenbrenner
Microsoft Office distribution could unlock 100 billion dollars of AI revenue
Microsoft can finance frontier-scale clusters because its installed Office base offers a direct path to enormous AI monetization. Selling a 100 dollar monthly AI add-on to roughly…
$META···bullish· mediumleopold aschenbrenner
Meta's lagged open models could accelerate broad AI diffusion
Open-sourcing models behind the frontier could preserve civilian innovation while restricting only the most dangerous dual-use capabilities.
$MSFT···bullish· highleopold aschenbrenner
Microsoft can finance the hundred-billion-dollar race to AGI
Microsoft's balance sheet and access to deep US capital markets give it the capacity to finance hundred-billion-dollar AI clusters, a scale private laboratories may struggle to ma…
$OPENAIbearish· highleopold aschenbrenner
Leopold warns OpenAI repeatedly sidelines safety and security commitments
OpenAI publicly makes major safety and security commitments but repeatedly fails to prioritize them when resources and trade-offs become real, creating material governance and exe…
$NVDA···bullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner
Nvidia was the only pure AI-beta trade before the boom
Nvidia offered uniquely concentrated AI exposure: each successive increase in AI compute demand translated directly into material revenue growth, unlike suppliers whose AI busines…
$TSM···bullish· high· posleopold aschenbrenner
TSMC enters the AI sweet spot as exposure turns material
TSMC's AI revenue mix is expected to reach roughly 20% by 2027, making another demand doubling large enough to move the overall business and broaden the AI trade beyond Nvidia.
$GOOGL···bullish· medium· posleopold aschenbrenner
Google could explode once AI revenue crosses $100 billion
Alphabet becomes a compelling AI-beta investment once AI revenue is large enough to reshape the consolidated business; Aschenbrenner sees a path to $100 billion of AI revenue and…