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▶ 78:40 · $TRAJECTORY · Trajectory raises $15M (Conviction) for continual learning; 10x smaller models beat frontier, improve 1% daily
episode briefing
TBPN

John Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

2026-05-29 · 15 company · 10 thematic
sentiment
14 bull1 bear0 neu
speakers
brad gerstner

Founder and CEO of Altimeter Capital, a technology investment firm, and host of the BG2 podcast. Known for concentrated growth bets and widely-read public memos on big tech.

ron

Former DeepMind researcher and Windsurf (acquired by Google DeepMind) founder; left $2B acquisition proceeds to start Trajectory; building continual learning platform for AI agents with $15M from Conviction.

zayn mountcastle

CEO of Pico Grid, defense technology company building integration layer for autonomous military systems; raised $45M Series A from Bessemer; 7x production scaling; contracts with Pentagon and NATO.

jamie

CEO of Pace, AI operations platform for insurance industry; raised $46M Series B from Driving Capital/Emergence/Proven; 100% pilot-to-production rate; customers include Credential, WW, Convex, Palomar.

quote
“What we're interested in is building like building an agent that is 10 years of experience on the job... we have models that are 10 times smaller than the frontier models that are able to beat them. But also, that's not what we're most exc…”
—ron
now playing · $TRAJECTORY
$TRAJECTORYbullish· high· posron
Trajectory raises $15M (Conviction) for continual learning; 10x smaller models beat frontier, improve 1% daily
Trajectory builds agents that learn continuously from production usage (edits, retries) rather than static training; 10x smaller models beat frontier models today and compound at…
$PICO-GRIDbullish· high· poszayn mountcastle
Mountcastle: $45M Series A (Bessemer) for defense integration layer; 7x production in months
Pico Grid builds the hardware/software glue connecting sensors, drones, robots, and weapons for Pentagon/NATO; 7x production scaling in 3-4 months proves acute integration bottlen…
$PACEbullish· high· posjamie
Pace raises $46M Series B (Driving Capital) for insurance AI ops; 100% pilot-to-production, 90% autonomous tasks
Pace deploys AI agents for back-office insurance operations at 99.9%+ accuracy SLAs; 100% pilot-to-production win rate with Palomar achieving 90% full autonomy; computer use model…
$ANTHROPICbullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Anthropic is fastest growing company in history of capitalism, buoyed entire AI narrative
Anthropic's $4.7B ARR and high-margin revenue trajectory validated the AI revenue story when OpenAI and Google disappointed; its performance single-handedly prevented a 10-15% mar…
$DELL···bullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Dell AI server revenue up 750% YoY from $1B to $16B
Dell's AI server business exploded from $1B to $16B in one year (750% YoY), proving enterprise AI infrastructure demand is real and massive; Michael Dell's execution validates the…
$SNOW···bullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Snowflake in the token flow - database queries growing faster than token usage
Snowflake is an enabler of AI models (not competitor) - as token consumption grows, database query volume grows even faster; proven by Altimeter's own usage data. This positions S…
$CRM···bearish· mediumbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Salesforce competes with models rather than enables them - more challenging for AI multiple
Salesforce's front-facing applications compete directly with model capabilities (agents), unlike Snowflake which enables models; this competitive dynamic makes it harder for CRM t…
$CURSORbullish· highbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Cursor taking over X.AI, training frontier models on massive compute
Cursor's coding agent adoption gives it a unique position to train frontier models on unprecedented compute (macro hard/er), creating a flywheel of product usage → model improveme…
$SPCX···bullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO tenor shifted by Cursor and Anthropic compute deals
SpaceX is evolving from pure launch to a full-stack AI compute company with Starlink distribution, EWS (Elon Web Services) for token production, and data centers in space; the Cur…
$THRIVE-HOLDINGSbullish· mediumbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Thrive Holdings model (buy + AI turbocharge) superior to Kirkland building own legal software
Josh Kushner's Thrive Holdings buys professional services firms (accounting) and AI-enables them with deep OpenAI partnership, driving massive productivity gains; this roll-up + A…
$GROKbullish· medium· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Altimeter invested in xAI/Grok as part of compute shortage thesis
xAI's Grok represents another bet on the intelligence layer benefiting from massive compute scale; Altimeter participated alongside Cerebras in semiconductor/compute ecosystem.
$CBRS···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: 9-year hold in Cerebras culminating in recent IPO
Altimeter invested in Cerebras for 9 years through the IPO, betting on alternative compute architectures addressing the token production bottleneck.
$OPENAIbullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Altimeter made massive bets on OpenAI and Anthropic, consuming billions
Altimeter's largest ever bets are on OpenAI and Anthropic as the principal beneficiaries of AI compute demand; despite OpenAI not blowing away numbers like Anthropic, the firm bel…
$NVDA···bullish· high· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Nvidia at cheapest multiple in a decade (13x) for 70% growth; urges 75% FCF return
Nvidia trades at 13x earnings with 70% growth while software trades at 22-23x market multiples; Gerstner argues Jensen should return 70-75% of FCF via buybacks/dividends to attrac…
$MU···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner
Gerstner: Micron trading at single-digit multiple despite memory wafer bottleneck
Micron benefits from structural memory wafer scarcity that limits token production; trading at single-digit multiples despite being a critical constraint in the AI compute supply…