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▶ 17:29 · $UBER · Autonomy is existential but Uber's distribution advantage will attract multiple AV partners

episode shorts · 3

Uber's Crazy China Story

The Hidden Cost of Uber Rewards

What Uber Learned From Burning $52M a Week

now playing · $UBER

$UBER···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Uber One membership is most efficient long-term consumer lever with compounding LTV

Uber One membership delivers the highest incremental gross bookings per dollar invested because cohorts ride more over time, cross-sell into Uber Eats, and show lower churn, makin…

$UBER···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Autonomy is existential but Uber's distribution advantage will attract multiple AV partners

Autonomous vehicles are a better product that will improve daily, making autonomy existential for ride-hailing; however, Uber's global distribution across 200M monthly users and p…

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Waymo will be an AV winner but multiple winners will emerge and need Uber's distribution

Waymo and Tesla will both succeed in autonomy, but the market will support multiple winners (as in China with 4-5 players), and all will need Uber's distribution to maximize utili…

$WAYMObullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Multiple AV winners will emerge; distribution beats pure technology

Waymo and Tesla will both be AV winners, but there will be more than two; China already has 4-5 AV players; Uber's distribution (200M users) and AV partners' need for fleet utiliz…

$TSLA···bullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Tesla will be an AV winner but distribution remains key

Tesla will achieve autonomy and be a winner, but even with strong 1P app, they will need Uber's distribution to maximize utilization of expensive fixed assets (vehicles), similar…

$UBER···bullish· highandrew macdonald

AI delivering tangible internal ROI in capital allocation, forecasting, marketing QA

Uber is seeing concrete efficiency gains from AI: capital allocation reduced from 15 hours to 2 hours, forecasting from 8 hours to 2 hours with more precision, marketing QA from 2…

$UBER···neutral· mediumandrew macdonald

AI likely to reduce headcount in producing functions within 5 years

Customer support, sales, content production, and analytics roles are disproportionately large and susceptible to AI augmentation and partial replacement, so Uber could do today's…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumandrew macdonald

OpenAI preferred for voice; physical-world moat protects Uber from frontier lab disintermediation

OpenAI's voice engine is superior for daily workflow use (50x other AI features), and Uber's physical-world operations (local licensing, boots-on-ground in 10k+ cities) make it ha…

$DHER.DE···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Delivery Hero acquisition expands geographic footprint and adds strong local brands

Acquiring Delivery Hero gives Uber immediate scale in Argentina, Korea, Middle East and other markets where local brands have deep consumer mindshare and household awareness that…

$DHER···bullish· highandrew macdonald

Delivery Hero acquisition buys geographic scale and local brand moats

Acquiring Delivery Hero instantly expands Uber's delivery footprint into Argentina, Korea, Middle East with leading local brands that have high consumer mindshare and are hard to…

$DASH···neutral· mediumandrew macdonald

DoorDash is excellent operator; Uber plays challenger role in US food delivery

DoorDash executes well with speed, aggression, and capital, making it a formidable incumbent; Uber is not #1 in US food delivery and must play challenger, which changes the strate…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumandrew macdonald

OpenAI voice engine preferred over Anthropic for daily workflow; 50x usage of other AI features

OpenAI's voice engine is the single most used AI feature for knowledge work (notes, emails, thoughts, lists), making it the practical winner for voice-first enterprise adoption de…

$ANTHROPICneutral· lowandrew macdonald

Anthropic used but secondary to OpenAI for voice workflows

Uber works with both OpenAI and Anthropic but finds OpenAI's voice capabilities significantly better for daily productivity workflows.

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▶ 17:29 · $UBER · Autonomy is existential but Uber's distribution advantage will attract multiple AV partners

episode shorts · 3

Uber's Crazy China Story

The Hidden Cost of Uber Rewards

What Uber Learned From Burning $52M a Week

now playing · $UBER

$UBER···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Uber One membership is most efficient long-term consumer lever with compounding LTV

Uber One membership delivers the highest incremental gross bookings per dollar invested because cohorts ride more over time, cross-sell into Uber Eats, and show lower churn, makin…

$UBER···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Autonomy is existential but Uber's distribution advantage will attract multiple AV partners

Autonomous vehicles are a better product that will improve daily, making autonomy existential for ride-hailing; however, Uber's global distribution across 200M monthly users and p…

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Waymo will be an AV winner but multiple winners will emerge and need Uber's distribution

Waymo and Tesla will both succeed in autonomy, but the market will support multiple winners (as in China with 4-5 players), and all will need Uber's distribution to maximize utili…

$WAYMObullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Multiple AV winners will emerge; distribution beats pure technology

Waymo and Tesla will both be AV winners, but there will be more than two; China already has 4-5 AV players; Uber's distribution (200M users) and AV partners' need for fleet utiliz…

$TSLA···bullish· mediumandrew macdonald

Tesla will be an AV winner but distribution remains key

Tesla will achieve autonomy and be a winner, but even with strong 1P app, they will need Uber's distribution to maximize utilization of expensive fixed assets (vehicles), similar…

$UBER···bullish· highandrew macdonald

AI delivering tangible internal ROI in capital allocation, forecasting, marketing QA

Uber is seeing concrete efficiency gains from AI: capital allocation reduced from 15 hours to 2 hours, forecasting from 8 hours to 2 hours with more precision, marketing QA from 2…

$UBER···neutral· mediumandrew macdonald

AI likely to reduce headcount in producing functions within 5 years

Customer support, sales, content production, and analytics roles are disproportionately large and susceptible to AI augmentation and partial replacement, so Uber could do today's…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumandrew macdonald

OpenAI preferred for voice; physical-world moat protects Uber from frontier lab disintermediation

OpenAI's voice engine is superior for daily workflow use (50x other AI features), and Uber's physical-world operations (local licensing, boots-on-ground in 10k+ cities) make it ha…

$DHER.DE···bullish· high· posandrew macdonald

Delivery Hero acquisition expands geographic footprint and adds strong local brands

Acquiring Delivery Hero gives Uber immediate scale in Argentina, Korea, Middle East and other markets where local brands have deep consumer mindshare and household awareness that…

$DHER···bullish· highandrew macdonald

Delivery Hero acquisition buys geographic scale and local brand moats

Acquiring Delivery Hero instantly expands Uber's delivery footprint into Argentina, Korea, Middle East with leading local brands that have high consumer mindshare and are hard to…

$DASH···neutral· mediumandrew macdonald

DoorDash is excellent operator; Uber plays challenger role in US food delivery

DoorDash executes well with speed, aggression, and capital, making it a formidable incumbent; Uber is not #1 in US food delivery and must play challenger, which changes the strate…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumandrew macdonald

OpenAI voice engine preferred over Anthropic for daily workflow; 50x usage of other AI features

OpenAI's voice engine is the single most used AI feature for knowledge work (notes, emails, thoughts, lists), making it the practical winner for voice-first enterprise adoption de…

$ANTHROPICneutral· lowandrew macdonald

Anthropic used but secondary to OpenAI for voice workflows

Uber works with both OpenAI and Anthropic but finds OpenAI's voice capabilities significantly better for daily productivity workflows.