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$GOOGL · Google paying $900M/month for 110K GPUs from SpaceX at 2x spot price
now playing · $GOOGL
$ANTHROPICbullish· highdwarkesh patel
Anthropic revenue 10x'ing YoY while compute only 3x's, margins surging to 80%+
Anthropic's revenue has 10x'd year-over-year for three consecutive years (reaching ~$9B) while lab compute only scales 3x, creating a structural gap that must be resolved by highe…
$ANTHROPICbullish· mediumdwarkesh patel
Anthropic revenue projected to hit $100-150B as inference margins surge to 80%+
Anthropic's revenue has 10x'd YoY for three straight years while compute only grows 3x, driving inference margins from 40% to over 80% and creating massive economies of scale in m…
$OPENAIneutral· mediumdwarkesh patel
OpenAI inference compute share doubled from 25% to ~50% in 2024
OpenAI's compute allocation to inference has risen from 25% in 2024 to approximately 50% now, reflecting the structural shift toward inference-heavy workloads as models mature and…
$GOOGL···bullish· highdwarkesh patel
Google paying $900M/month for 110K GPUs from SpaceX at 2x spot price
Google is renting 110,000 GPUs (GB200/GB300 blend) from SpaceX for $900M/month — a 2x premium over spot prices — demonstrating frontier labs' willingness to pay massive premiums f…
$SPCX···bullish· mediumdwarkesh patel
SpaceX emerging as major AI compute landlord renting GB200/GB300 clusters to Google and Anthropic
SpaceX is supplying large-scale GPU clusters (110K GPUs to Google alone) to frontier labs at 2x spot pricing, positioning itself as a critical compute infrastructure provider in t…
$NVDA···bullish· highdwarkesh patel
H100 equivalent could rent for 15x current spot price if running human-level software engineer
As AI models approach human-level software engineering capability, the same H100 compute could generate >$250K/year in value (15x current spot rates) because AI can work continuou…
$NVDA···bullish· mediumdwarkesh patel
Compute prices could rise 15x as AI approaches human-level software engineering
As AI models become more capable, they monetize compute far more effectively — an H100 running a human-level software engineer would be worth $250K/year (15x current spot), and st…
$TSM···bullish· mediumdwarkesh patel
TSMC N3 wafer capacity bottleneck as AI absorbs 86% of leading-edge allocation
AI's share of TSMC N3 wafer capacity will jump from 60% to 86% by end of next year, hitting a hard wall where no more leading-edge capacity can be reallocated from smartphones/PCs…
$ASML···bullish· mediumdwarkesh patel
ASML EUV machine production bottlenecks fab expansion through 2030+
New fab construction — contributing 1.2x to annual compute growth — is ultimately limited by ASML's ability to produce EUV lithography machines, creating a structural bottleneck t…
$ASML···neutral· highdwarkesh patel
New fab construction bottlenecked by ASML EUV machine supply through 2030+
The 1.2x compute scaling contribution from new fabs is ultimately constrained by ASML EUV machine production capacity, creating a hard bottleneck that cannot be accelerated before…
$TSM···neutral· highdwarkesh patel
TSMC N3 node AI wafer allocation rising from 60% to 86%, hitting hard ceiling by end of 2025
AI's share of leading-edge TSMC N3 wafer capacity will jump from 60% to 86% by end of next year, absorbing nearly all available supply and eliminating the wafer reallocation tailw…