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▶ 4:55 · $SKHY · Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)

now playing · $SKHY

SK Hynix misses earnings on LTA shift as memory rate of change decelerates

SK Hynix missed consensus because they shifted more volume to long-term agreements (LTAs) at lower prices; memory prices 3x'd last year but will only rise 30-50% next year, causin…

$CXMTbullish· mediumdoug o'loughlin

CXMT emerges as #4 DRAM player, Apple adopting their chips amid shortage

CXMT is clearly the fourth DRAM supplier and will make significant money during the current shortage; Apple has already qualified CXMT memory due to Micron pricing disputes, but C…

$MU···neutral· mediumdoug o'loughlin

Micron accused of price gouging by Apple as LTAs shift market dynamics

Apple is switching to CXMT memory and accusing Micron of price gouging, but Doug argues 'no crying in the casino' — buyers must pay market prices during shortages.

$AAPL···neutral· mediumdoug o'loughlin

Apple qualifies CXMT memory, accuses Micron of price gouging

Apple has moved to CXMT for DRAM supply due to pricing disputes with Micron, illustrating how the memory shortage forces even major buyers to diversify to Chinese suppliers.

$ANTHROPICbullish· lowdoug o'loughlin

Anthropic seen as anchor tenant for gigawatt-scale AI clusters

Hyperscalers are building gigawatt clusters specifically to land Anthropic as a customer, driving triple-ordering of equipment and memory.

$NVDA···neutral· highdoug o'loughlin

H100 obsolescence debated: model growth may outpace retrofit economics

Doug argues H100s will become worthless as models grow too large (Kimmy K3 needs B300/MI355X), but Dylan counters that data center retrofit friction (power, cooling, footprint) pr…

$OPENAIneutral· mediumdoug o'loughlin

OpenAI final pre-train and IPO expected to cap funding cycle

OpenAI and Anthropic are racing toward a 'final pre-train' that will coincide with an IPO/final funding round; the resulting model will generate significant revenue but may not gr…

$META···bullish· mediumdoug o'loughlin

Meta's cash gusher provides cushion for AI capex but path narrows

Meta generates massive profits from its core business and could stop capex tomorrow to print free cash flow, but as AI investment scales to trillions, the revenue-to-capex ratio t…

$TSM···bearish· mediumdoug o'loughlin

TSMC labor constraints limit Taiwan's ability to double chip output again

TSMC directly and indirectly employs ~20% of Taiwan's economy; another doubling of output would require more workers than Taiwan has, creating a hard ceiling on supply growth unle…

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