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$000660.KS · Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)
now playing · $000660.KS
$000660.KS···neutral· highdoug o'loughlin
SK Hynix misses earnings on LTA shift as memory cycle second derivative slows
Memory prices 3x'd last year but rate of change is decelerating; SK Hynix shifted to long-term agreements showing conservative pricing, triggering levered retail margin calls in K…
$CXMTneutral· mediumdoug o'loughlin
CXMT positioned as #4 DRAM player with province-backed capacity to disrupt pricing
Chinese memory makers compete for GDP output not margins; CXMT is incentivized to produce and already winning Apple orders as Micron is accused of price gouging, but structural de…
$NVDA···bearish· mediumdoug o'loughlin
H100s risk obsolescence as model size outpaces Hopper; B200/B300 pricing divergence key signal
Next-gen models like Kimi K3 require B300/MI355X single-node inference; H100 clusters will need 100x chips per model making them uneconomic, so a pricing divergence between B200 a…
$OPENAIneutral· highdoug o'loughlin
Final pre-train IPO funding round risks $5T capex vs $500B revenue timing mismatch
Frontier labs are racing to final pre-train models to IPO and raise final mega-rounds; but even if revenue hits $500B, a $5T cumulative capex implies 10-year payback on revenue (n…
$META···bullish· mediumunknown
Meta's gushing ad cash flow provides capex optionality; can stop spending and print profit instantly
Meta's core business generates massive free cash flow; current negative FCF is a choice to fund AI capex, but they could halt capex tomorrow and revert to highly profitable state,…
$TSM···neutral· highdoug o'loughlin
TSMC employs 20% of Taiwan economy; labor and electrician constraints cap further doubling
TSMC's direct and indirect employment dominates Taiwan's economy; tripling output would require more workers than Taiwan has, and Arizona fabs face the same electrician shortage (…