▶ 0:22 · $RAMP · SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR

episode briefing

SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR

2026-06-11 · 18 company · 8 thematic

sentiment

5 bull4 bear9 neu

speakers

Founder of SaaStr, a community and media platform for B2B software founders and executives. He is an early-stage investor and a frequent commentator on SaaS growth and go-to-market strategy.

harry stebbings

Founder of 20VC (The Twenty Minute VC), one of the most popular venture-capital podcasts, and its associated fund.

rory o'driscoll

Rory O'Driscoll is a partner at Scale Venture Partners, a late-stage venture firm. He references Scale's portfolio (Linear, DataBricks, HubSpot, Salesforce, Palantir) and fund dynamics. He previously invested in Anthropic (2021) and tracks AI infrastructure closely.

quote

“Then finally, we have RAMP raising their latest round at $44 billion. There's always money when people aren't afraid.”

—harry stebbings

episode shorts · 3

SpaceX is an Amazing Technical Company

Why Revolut is worth $115B

SpaceX Launches Largest EVER IPO

now playing · $RAMP

$RAMPneutral· lowharry stebbings

Ramp raises at $44B valuation, risk-on market validates higher private cost of capital

The round shows private capital appetite for fintech at richer valuations. A risk-on market keeps private deal flow functional but at stretched prices.

$SPCX···bearish· mediumjason lemkin

Jason calls SpaceX IPO a dud with no pop at 2x oversubscription

Fixed price at $135/share with only 2x book coverage leaves no room for pop; traditional IPOs need 8-10x oversubscription, and Elon's mechanism removes banker price discovery that…

$SPCX···bearish· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory predicts SpaceX valuation reasserts lower over 12 months despite iconic status

Base rates show IPOs at 70x+ forward sales almost always dip; fixed-price mechanism increases downside probability day one, but long-term inexorable rise driven by satellite reven…

$OPENAIneutral· mediumjason lemkin

Calacanis: a SpaceX IPO dud could hurt OpenAI more given its valuation and capital-raise ambitions

If the SpaceX IPO does not pop, OpenAI suffers more because it has been the most aggressive on valuation ($122B last round) and capital raising. Filing publicly now manages expect…

$OPENAIneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory reads OpenAI S-1 filing as expectation management for inevitable public raise

Filing confidentially with 'may stay private' language manages timeline risk; real driver is massive capital need for foundation models that only public markets can satisfy — ever…

$AAPL···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory defends Apple-Gemini deal as pragmatic consumer play, not AI surrender

Apple pays Google $1B for Gemini but receives $20B for search default — minor offset. They control the handset and context (calendar, contacts) to deliver unique consumer experien…

$UBER···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory sees Uber's 23% HR cut as mostly right-sizing, flags robo-taxi progress in Madrid as real signal

HR/recruiting easiest to cut; 23% unlikely all AI automation given non-engineering adoption lag. More significant: Uber partnering with WeRide for autonomous driving in Europe — l…

$UBER···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory: Uber well-positioned in robotaxi as multi-tech aggregator

Uber is back in autonomous via partnerships (WeRide, Madrid robotaxi). Bull case: many companies build robotaxi tech, Uber coordinates because it owns the app. Adding 10,000 robot…

$REVOLUTbullish· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory links Revolut's $115B valuation to European bank inefficiency, warns of systemic lending gap

Fintech valuations are a function of incumbent pricing power — European banks were 'fat, dumb, happy' on FX fees. Revolut blew a hole through that. But largest bank by market cap…

$LOVABLEbullish· highjason lemkin

Jason cites Lovable's $500M ARR with 146 employees as proof of AI-native efficiency disrupting venture

AI-native startups achieving $3M+ revenue per head vs $350K at Salesforce; they push features faster than previous generation did in lifetimes. If this becomes steady state, start…

$SPCX···bullish· highrory o'driscoll

Rory calls Elon's xAI pivot 'incredible transition' — now most efficient CoreWeave with lowest cost of capital

Elon deployed $20-30B in data centers pre-revenue on AI conviction; now monetizing via $24B/yr compute contracts from Anthropic and Google, plus Cursor backfilling servers. Turned…

$RAMPneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory frames Ramp's $44B round as financial-services valuation adjusted for growth — 30-40x revenue bet

Ramp trading at 30-40x ARR ($1.25B) like Brex at 6x; will trade like financial services but adjusted for growth. If growth sustains, smart round; if normalizes, not. Same bet as R…

$SUNObearish· low· posjason lemkin

Jason questions Suno's $5.4B valuation despite being paying customer — feels like risk-on fragility

Pays $15-20/month for ~3 songs — utility barely justifies cost; valuation doubled in 6 months on revenue/growth/stickiness/brand but $20B outcome not visible. Fragile for marginal…

$AVGO···bearish· lowrory o'driscoll

Broadcom guidance miss triggers dip when semiconductor index up 100% YTD — priced for perfection

Chip guidance of $16B vs $17B expected caused Friday dip; when priced for perfection, even small misses filter through fast. Semi index up 100% YTD makes it vulnerable to correcti…

$BSP···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory analyzes Bending Spoons as Vista playbook for consumer apps — cut costs, raise prices, sticky inertia

Buys dead consumer assets (Evernote, Vimeo, AOL), cuts 80% marketing, raises prices 80% over 2 years, retains sticky users who won't churn. Great business but $20B at 15-20x reven…

$DATABRICKSneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory explains Databricks staying private at $65B — capital needs manageable, public cost of capital not cheaper yet

Unlike foundation model companies needing $100B+, Databricks' $4-5B revenue software model can raise privately at higher multiples than Snowflake public. No urgency: three reasons…

$MSFT···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll

Rory sees Microsoft's own models as necessary step to grind to 'good enough' like Azure did vs AWS

Microsoft couldn't sustain open relationship with OpenAI; needed own control. New models lack web search — flashback to 9-month knowledge cutoffs — but step toward goal. May grind…

$NBIS···neutral· mediumharry stebbings

Nebius founder (via Harry): model consolidation is the biggest threat to the neocloud business

If only one or two models win, neoclouds get squeezed. An ecosystem rather than a monopoly is directly in Nebius's interest. That's why Anthropic and OpenAI compete ferociously to…

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