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$SUNO · SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR
now playing · $SUNO
$SUNObearish· low· posjason lemkin
Jason questions Suno's $5.4B valuation despite being paying customer — feels like risk-on fragility
Pays $15-20/month for ~3 songs — utility barely justifies cost; valuation doubled in 6 months on revenue/growth/stickiness/brand but $20B outcome not visible. Fragile for marginal…
$SPCX···bearish· mediumjason lemkin
Jason calls SpaceX IPO a dud with no pop at 2x oversubscription
Fixed price at $135/share with only 2x book coverage leaves no room for pop; traditional IPOs need 8-10x oversubscription, and Elon's mechanism removes banker price discovery that…
$LOVABLEbullish· highjason lemkin
Jason cites Lovable's $500M ARR with 146 employees as proof of AI-native efficiency disrupting venture
AI-native startups achieving $3M+ revenue per head vs $350K at Salesforce; they push features faster than previous generation did in lifetimes. If this becomes steady state, start…
$RAMPneutral· lowharry stebbings
Ramp raises at $44B valuation, risk-on market validates higher private cost of capital
The round shows private capital appetite for fintech at richer valuations. A risk-on market keeps private deal flow functional but at stretched prices.
$SPCX···bearish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory Driscoll bearish near-term on IPO: fixed price at 39x forward sales, base rate points to a dip
Elon set a fixed price with no price discovery at $135/sh, $1.77T. Only 2x subscribed (vs the usual 8-10x). Greater than 10% chance it breaks IPO. Historically, IPOs above 70x for…
$SPCX···bearish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory predicts SpaceX valuation reasserts lower over 12 months despite iconic status
Base rates show IPOs at 70x+ forward sales almost always dip; fixed-price mechanism increases downside probability day one, but long-term inexorable rise driven by satellite reven…
$OPENAIneutral· mediumjason lemkin
Calacanis: a SpaceX IPO dud could hurt OpenAI more given its valuation and capital-raise ambitions
If the SpaceX IPO does not pop, OpenAI suffers more because it has been the most aggressive on valuation ($122B last round) and capital raising. Filing publicly now manages expect…
$OPENAIneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory reads OpenAI S-1 filing as expectation management for inevitable public raise
Filing confidentially with 'may stay private' language manages timeline risk; real driver is massive capital need for foundation models that only public markets can satisfy — ever…
$AAPL···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory defends Apple-Gemini deal as pragmatic consumer play, not AI surrender
Apple pays Google $1B for Gemini but receives $20B for search default — minor offset. They control the handset and context (calendar, contacts) to deliver unique consumer experien…
$AAPL···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory: Apple was right to throw in the towel on its own model and cut a Google deal for Siri
Apple pays $1B/yr to Google for Gemini as the default Siri while Google pays Apple $20B for default search. The offset is minor. Apple controls the handset and user context, and c…
$UBER···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory sees Uber's 23% HR cut as mostly right-sizing, flags robo-taxi progress in Madrid as real signal
HR/recruiting easiest to cut; 23% unlikely all AI automation given non-engineering adoption lag. More significant: Uber partnering with WeRide for autonomous driving in Europe — l…
$UBER···bullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory: Uber well-positioned in robotaxi as multi-tech aggregator
Uber is back in autonomous via partnerships (WeRide, Madrid robotaxi). Bull case: many companies build robotaxi tech, Uber coordinates because it owns the app. Adding 10,000 robot…
$REVOLUTbullish· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory links Revolut's $115B valuation to European bank inefficiency, warns of systemic lending gap
Fintech valuations are a function of incumbent pricing power — European banks were 'fat, dumb, happy' on FX fees. Revolut blew a hole through that. But largest bank by market cap…
$LOVABLEbullish· highharry stebbings
Lovable hits $500M ARR with 146 employees; Cursor at $4B targeting $6B by year-end
Lovable: $500M ARR with 146 employees. Cursor: $4B ARR targeting $6B by year-end. Disruptive operating model, lean AI startups can afford to pay $1M+ to top engineers. If this is…
$XAIbullish· highrory o'driscoll
Rory calls Elon's xAI pivot 'incredible transition' — now most efficient CoreWeave with lowest cost of capital
Elon deployed $20-30B in data centers pre-revenue on AI conviction; now monetizing via $24B/yr compute contracts from Anthropic and Google, plus Cursor backfilling servers. Turned…
$RAMPneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory frames Ramp's $44B round as financial-services valuation adjusted for growth — 30-40x revenue bet
Ramp trading at 30-40x ARR ($1.25B) like Brex at 6x; will trade like financial services but adjusted for growth. If growth sustains, smart round; if normalizes, not. Same bet as R…
$AVGO···bearish· lowrory o'driscoll
Broadcom guidance miss triggers dip when semiconductor index up 100% YTD — priced for perfection
Chip guidance of $16B vs $17B expected caused Friday dip; when priced for perfection, even small misses filter through fast. Semi index up 100% YTD makes it vulnerable to correcti…
$BSP···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory analyzes Bending Spoons as Vista playbook for consumer apps — cut costs, raise prices, sticky inertia
Buys dead consumer assets (Evernote, Vimeo, AOL), cuts 80% marketing, raises prices 80% over 2 years, retains sticky users who won't churn. Great business but $20B at 15-20x reven…
$DATABRICKSneutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory explains Databricks staying private at $65B — capital needs manageable, public cost of capital not cheaper yet
Unlike foundation model companies needing $100B+, Databricks' $4-5B revenue software model can raise privately at higher multiples than Snowflake public. No urgency: three reasons…
$MSFT···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory: Microsoft ships its own models but they can't even browse the web, betting on 'good enough' in 3 years
Microsoft cannot rely on OpenAI forever and its in-house models feel like a 9-month flashback (they can't even search the web). It can grind to good enough in 3-4 years like Azure…
$MSFT···neutral· mediumrory o'driscoll
Rory sees Microsoft's own models as necessary step to grind to 'good enough' like Azure did vs AWS
Microsoft couldn't sustain open relationship with OpenAI; needed own control. New models lack web search — flashback to 9-month knowledge cutoffs — but step toward goal. May grind…
$NBIS···neutral· mediumharry stebbings
Nebius founder (via Harry): model consolidation is the biggest threat to the neocloud business
If only one or two models win, neoclouds get squeezed. An ecosystem rather than a monopoly is directly in Nebius's interest. That's why Anthropic and OpenAI compete ferociously to…