▶ 58:56 · $NVDA · Clark Tang: Nvidia held share despite ASIC threat, demand accelerating

episode briefing

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang

2026-06-11 · 14 company · 0 thematic

sentiment

11 bull1 bear2 neu

speakers

Founder and CEO of Altimeter Capital, a technology investment firm, and host of the BG2 podcast. Known for concentrated growth bets and widely-read public memos on big tech.

gavin baker

Managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, a technology-focused hedge fund. He previously ran the Fidelity OTC fund for years and is one of the most-followed voices on semiconductors, AI infrastructure and growth tech.

clark tang

Partner at Altimeter Capital, a technology-focused investment firm, where he invests across public and private growth companies.

quote

“every one assumed that Nvidia was going to lose share dramatically on a revenue scale, on a gigawatt scale, on a unit scale. And actually, if you actually look at the last few years, they've actually maintained their share very, very hands…”

—clark tang

now playing · $NVDA

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumbrad gerstner

Google paying SpaceX a premium for compute to secure first-in-line space access

Google is paying SpaceX a large premium for terrestrial AI compute, partly to be first in line for future orbital compute; the willingness to overpay signals how scarce coherent,…

$CRWV···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner stays long CoreWeave even as SpaceX emerges as the #4 hyperscaler

The AI compute market is consolidating among hyperscalers plus Elon. CoreWeave remains an important neocloud player but SpaceX could emerge as the strongest. Acknowledges 50 new n…

$NBIS···bullish· mediumgavin baker

Gavin Baker flags Nebius as a relevant neocloud in AI compute consolidation

Nebius sits in the universe of NeoLabs/emerging neoclouds building capacity to meet the compute shortage. Faces SpaceX as a new hyperscaler but there is room for multiple players…

$CURSORbullish· high· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: SpaceX acquires Cursor, on track for $10B exit run-rate this year, in a dramatic model upgrade

Cursor had more private coding tokens than the public internet. SpaceX injects that data into Grok 4.3 pre-training on 1.5T params. Composer 2.5 was already Pareto-dominant 12 day…

$SPCX···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker calls SpaceX IPO a 'must own' bet on space and AI

SpaceX is now four distinct businesses (launch, Starlink, AI compute reselling, and the xAI/Cursor model) and the best single vehicle to bet on both the space and AI future; the A…

$DATABRICKSbullish· mediumbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Databricks is 'quasi-public' with continuous liquidity — more liquid than many public biotechs

SpaceX, Anthropic and Databricks are quasi-public: liquidity every 6 months, with employees and large investors historically able to sell — this is a continuum of liquidity, not a…

$ANTHROPICbullish· highgavin baker

Gavin Baker: hard to argue Anthropic isn't winning after revenue and Fable 5

Anthropic's surging revenue, the Fable 5 release and reportedly even stronger Mythos model show frontier tokens are capturing the vast majority of economic value; its data-center…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Nvidia is gaining share, can join frontier faster than people think

In a watt-constrained world Nvidia delivers more tokens per watt (literally more revenue) than rival ASICs, so it keeps gaining share; Nvidia could also leverage its open-source m…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posclark tang

Clark Tang: Nvidia held share despite ASIC threat, demand accelerating

Contrary to expectations of dramatic share loss to custom ASICs, Nvidia has maintained or even gained share on revenue, gigawatt and unit terms; the world is consuming more Nvidia…

$AVGO···neutral· mediumclark tang

Clark Tang: Broadcom-vs-Nvidia ASIC battle now more nuanced, custom per workload

The old binary of Broadcom ASICs versus Nvidia is giving way to a more nuanced view where accelerators get increasingly custom to specific workloads; Broadcom (with TPUs) remains…

$AMD···neutral· lowgavin baker

AMD holds six-gigawatt OpenAI commitment, but Nvidia retains efficiency edge

Baker said AMD has six gigawatts committed with OpenAI and warrants, while Cerebras has one. He argued Nvidia could retain more share because tokens per watt translate directly in…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Nvidia holds share against ASICs and accelerates; share-loss thesis was 'decisively wrong'

In a watt-constrained world, tokens-per-watt is revenue. Nvidia maintains or gains share even adjusting for Anthropic not using them. Custom ASICs are disappointing at Meta and Mi…

$META···bearish· mediumgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Meta's ASIC disappointing in competitive custom-chip landscape

In the custom ASIC landscape, Meta and Microsoft have been disappointing. OpenAI built the best chip ('Jalapeno') but it runs hotter and needs more cooling. Frontier labs should f…

$GOOGL···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Google still in the frontier race after $80B capex raise and top-3 Gemini 3.1 Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro sits on the Pareto frontier alongside xAI, Anthropic and OpenAI. Google is paying a premium for SpaceX compute to grab pole position in orbital. The $80B capex rais…

←

▶ 58:56 · $NVDA · Clark Tang: Nvidia held share despite ASIC threat, demand accelerating

episode briefing

BG2 Pod

The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang

2026-06-11 · 14 company · 0 thematic

sentiment

11 bull1 bear2 neu

speakers

brad gerstner

Founder and CEO of Altimeter Capital, a technology investment firm, and host of the BG2 podcast. Known for concentrated growth bets and widely-read public memos on big tech.

gavin baker

clark tang

Partner at Altimeter Capital, a technology-focused investment firm, where he invests across public and private growth companies.

quote

“every one assumed that Nvidia was going to lose share dramatically on a revenue scale, on a gigawatt scale, on a unit scale. And actually, if you actually look at the last few years, they've actually maintained their share very, very hands…”

—clark tang

now playing · $NVDA

$GOOGL···bullish· mediumbrad gerstner

Google paying SpaceX a premium for compute to secure first-in-line space access

Google is paying SpaceX a large premium for terrestrial AI compute, partly to be first in line for future orbital compute; the willingness to overpay signals how scarce coherent,…

$CRWV···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner stays long CoreWeave even as SpaceX emerges as the #4 hyperscaler

The AI compute market is consolidating among hyperscalers plus Elon. CoreWeave remains an important neocloud player but SpaceX could emerge as the strongest. Acknowledges 50 new n…

$NBIS···bullish· mediumgavin baker

Gavin Baker flags Nebius as a relevant neocloud in AI compute consolidation

Nebius sits in the universe of NeoLabs/emerging neoclouds building capacity to meet the compute shortage. Faces SpaceX as a new hyperscaler but there is room for multiple players…

$CURSORbullish· high· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: SpaceX acquires Cursor, on track for $10B exit run-rate this year, in a dramatic model upgrade

Cursor had more private coding tokens than the public internet. SpaceX injects that data into Grok 4.3 pre-training on 1.5T params. Composer 2.5 was already Pareto-dominant 12 day…

$SPCX···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker calls SpaceX IPO a 'must own' bet on space and AI

SpaceX is now four distinct businesses (launch, Starlink, AI compute reselling, and the xAI/Cursor model) and the best single vehicle to bet on both the space and AI future; the A…

$DATABRICKSbullish· mediumbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Databricks is 'quasi-public' with continuous liquidity — more liquid than many public biotechs

SpaceX, Anthropic and Databricks are quasi-public: liquidity every 6 months, with employees and large investors historically able to sell — this is a continuum of liquidity, not a…

$ANTHROPICbullish· highgavin baker

Gavin Baker: hard to argue Anthropic isn't winning after revenue and Fable 5

Anthropic's surging revenue, the Fable 5 release and reportedly even stronger Mythos model show frontier tokens are capturing the vast majority of economic value; its data-center…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Nvidia is gaining share, can join frontier faster than people think

In a watt-constrained world Nvidia delivers more tokens per watt (literally more revenue) than rival ASICs, so it keeps gaining share; Nvidia could also leverage its open-source m…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posclark tang

Clark Tang: Nvidia held share despite ASIC threat, demand accelerating

Contrary to expectations of dramatic share loss to custom ASICs, Nvidia has maintained or even gained share on revenue, gigawatt and unit terms; the world is consuming more Nvidia…

$AVGO···neutral· mediumclark tang

Clark Tang: Broadcom-vs-Nvidia ASIC battle now more nuanced, custom per workload

The old binary of Broadcom ASICs versus Nvidia is giving way to a more nuanced view where accelerators get increasingly custom to specific workloads; Broadcom (with TPUs) remains…

$AMD···neutral· lowgavin baker

AMD holds six-gigawatt OpenAI commitment, but Nvidia retains efficiency edge

Baker said AMD has six gigawatts committed with OpenAI and warrants, while Cerebras has one. He argued Nvidia could retain more share because tokens per watt translate directly in…

$NVDA···bullish· high· posgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Nvidia holds share against ASICs and accelerates; share-loss thesis was 'decisively wrong'

In a watt-constrained world, tokens-per-watt is revenue. Nvidia maintains or gains share even adjusting for Anthropic not using them. Custom ASICs are disappointing at Meta and Mi…

$META···bearish· mediumgavin baker

Gavin Baker: Meta's ASIC disappointing in competitive custom-chip landscape

In the custom ASIC landscape, Meta and Microsoft have been disappointing. OpenAI built the best chip ('Jalapeno') but it runs hotter and needs more cooling. Frontier labs should f…

$GOOGL···bullish· medium· posbrad gerstner

Gerstner: Google still in the frontier race after $80B capex raise and top-3 Gemini 3.1 Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro sits on the Pareto frontier alongside xAI, Anthropic and OpenAI. Google is paying a premium for SpaceX compute to grab pole position in orbital. The $80B capex rais…