▶ 4:18 · $META · Tae Kim: Meta raising capex dramatically, AI revenue will come from 10x better ads

episode briefing

RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim

2026-07-29 · 16 company · 16 thematic

sentiment

15 bull1 bear0 neu

speakers

Regular TBPN guest (Barron's columnist, former Bloomberg); known for timely bullish calls on Nvidia, AMD, memory, and CPUs; tracks AI infrastructure fundamentals, supply chain, and capex cycles closely.

take-two

Regular guest on TBPN known for bottom-ticking market turns. Provides deep technical and supply-chain analysis on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and frontier model developments. Tracks capex flows, HBM supply, and frontier lab signals.

quote

“Alexander Wang is tweeting multiple times every few weeks that they're they're going full force. They're going to redo open source AI models. ... Reuters came out I think with an article saying that they're actually going to raise CapEx dr…”

—tae kim

now playing · $META

$META···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Meta raising capex dramatically, AI revenue will come from 10x better ads

Despite leaked town hall comments suggesting slower agentic AI progress, Meta is actually increasing capex significantly per Reuters; the ROI will come from making their already-d…

$NVDA···bullish· hightake-two

Take-Two: Nvidia united tech industry against Anthropic on open weights; supply chain moat strengthening

Nvidia rallied the entire tech industry (Google Cloud, Amazon, OpenAI) to counter Anthropic's push for open-weight restrictions, while using its scale to lock up scarce supply cha…

$MOONSHOT-AIbullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Kimi 2.8T parameter model requires massive compute, bullish for Nvidia

Moonshot's Kimi model is 2.8T parameters and requires 64-GPU servers, confirming that new 'efficient' models actually increase compute demand per the DeepSeek pattern, driving mor…

$OPENAIbullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Sam Altman says RSI arriving in 3-9 months, will consume unprecedented compute

Sam Altman stated at YC that the next 6 months will see dramatically more AI capability advancement than the last 2 years; both OpenAI and Anthropic signal recursive self-improvem…

$ANTHROPICbullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Anthropic's RSI blog post signals recursive self-improvement is near

Anthropic published a blog post on recursive self-improvement, and frontier researchers at both Anthropic and OpenAI are signaling RSI is imminent, which will drive massive comput…

$AMD···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Lisa Su's 83% TAM raise to $220B signals insane AI demand

AMD CEO Lisa Su raised the 2030 CPU TAM from $120B to $220B in just three months, a move serious public CEOs don't make unless they see overwhelming demand signals.

$SKHY···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: SK Hynix sees 5-6x HBM demand vs supply, doubling capacity over 5 years

SK Hynix executives disclosed customers (likely Nvidia/Jensen) are requesting 5-6x more HBM than they can supply, prompting a plan to double capacity over five years, confirming s…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Sam Altman regrets pulling back on compute purchases, now pedal to metal

Sam Altman admitted on a recent podcast that OpenAI made a mistake by not buying compute aggressively enough earlier, and is now accelerating purchases as demand takes off again.

$AMZN···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Andy Jassy's $200B capex letter confirms demand visibility and FCF confidence

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's annual letter explicitly states they see demand, know it will be insanely profitable and FCF positive in medium term, and are investing $200B (cumulative)…

$T···bullish· mediumtake-two

Take-Two: AT&T running 100 gen AI models in production, burning 1T tokens/month growing double digits

AT&T exemplifies enterprise AI adoption: 100 generative AI models in production, burning a trillion tokens monthly with double-digit growth, driven by competitive necessity — if t…

$NVDA···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's CUDA moat and supply chain dominance will drive revenue doubling

Nvidia's CUDA moat remains intact due to reliability from billions of real-world optimizations, while its scale lets it prepay and lock up scarce supply (optical components, TSMC…

$AMD···bearish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: AMD's claim that CUDA moat is dead is self-serving marketing

AMD is incentivized to claim CUDA is no longer a moat, but real-world reliability from billions of software runs makes CUDA durable; AI-generated kernels haven't proven they work…

$NVDA···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's strategic investments in CoreWeave, Lumentum, Coherent will create trillion-dollar portfolio

Nvidia is enabling the supply chain by investing in companies like CoreWeave, Lumentum, and Coherent so they can build capacity to serve exploding GPU cloud demand. These stakes w…

$CRWV···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's CoreWeave investment proves hyperscaler GPU cloud is highly profitable

Nvidia's early investment in CoreWeave generated significant returns, validating the thesis that GPU cloud businesses can achieve 60-80% inference margins and generate massive fre…

$LITE···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia bought stake in Lumentum to secure optical supply chain

Nvidia invested in optical component maker Lumentum to ensure supply for its networking stack, part of a broader strategy to lock up scarce components.

$COHR···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia bought stake in Coherent to secure optical supply chain

Nvidia invested in optical component maker Coherent to ensure supply for its networking stack, part of a broader strategy to lock up scarce components.

←

▶ 4:18 · $META · Tae Kim: Meta raising capex dramatically, AI revenue will come from 10x better ads

episode briefing

TBPN

RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim

2026-07-29 · 16 company · 16 thematic

sentiment

15 bull1 bear0 neu

speakers

tae kim

take-two

quote

“Alexander Wang is tweeting multiple times every few weeks that they're they're going full force. They're going to redo open source AI models. ... Reuters came out I think with an article saying that they're actually going to raise CapEx dr…”

—tae kim

now playing · $META

$META···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Meta raising capex dramatically, AI revenue will come from 10x better ads

Despite leaked town hall comments suggesting slower agentic AI progress, Meta is actually increasing capex significantly per Reuters; the ROI will come from making their already-d…

$NVDA···bullish· hightake-two

Take-Two: Nvidia united tech industry against Anthropic on open weights; supply chain moat strengthening

Nvidia rallied the entire tech industry (Google Cloud, Amazon, OpenAI) to counter Anthropic's push for open-weight restrictions, while using its scale to lock up scarce supply cha…

$MOONSHOT-AIbullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Kimi 2.8T parameter model requires massive compute, bullish for Nvidia

Moonshot's Kimi model is 2.8T parameters and requires 64-GPU servers, confirming that new 'efficient' models actually increase compute demand per the DeepSeek pattern, driving mor…

$OPENAIbullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Sam Altman says RSI arriving in 3-9 months, will consume unprecedented compute

Sam Altman stated at YC that the next 6 months will see dramatically more AI capability advancement than the last 2 years; both OpenAI and Anthropic signal recursive self-improvem…

$ANTHROPICbullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Anthropic's RSI blog post signals recursive self-improvement is near

Anthropic published a blog post on recursive self-improvement, and frontier researchers at both Anthropic and OpenAI are signaling RSI is imminent, which will drive massive comput…

$AMD···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Lisa Su's 83% TAM raise to $220B signals insane AI demand

AMD CEO Lisa Su raised the 2030 CPU TAM from $120B to $220B in just three months, a move serious public CEOs don't make unless they see overwhelming demand signals.

$SKHY···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: SK Hynix sees 5-6x HBM demand vs supply, doubling capacity over 5 years

SK Hynix executives disclosed customers (likely Nvidia/Jensen) are requesting 5-6x more HBM than they can supply, prompting a plan to double capacity over five years, confirming s…

$OPENAIbullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Sam Altman regrets pulling back on compute purchases, now pedal to metal

Sam Altman admitted on a recent podcast that OpenAI made a mistake by not buying compute aggressively enough earlier, and is now accelerating purchases as demand takes off again.

$AMZN···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Andy Jassy's $200B capex letter confirms demand visibility and FCF confidence

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's annual letter explicitly states they see demand, know it will be insanely profitable and FCF positive in medium term, and are investing $200B (cumulative)…

$T···bullish· mediumtake-two

Take-Two: AT&T running 100 gen AI models in production, burning 1T tokens/month growing double digits

AT&T exemplifies enterprise AI adoption: 100 generative AI models in production, burning a trillion tokens monthly with double-digit growth, driven by competitive necessity — if t…

$NVDA···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's CUDA moat and supply chain dominance will drive revenue doubling

Nvidia's CUDA moat remains intact due to reliability from billions of real-world optimizations, while its scale lets it prepay and lock up scarce supply (optical components, TSMC…

$AMD···bearish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: AMD's claim that CUDA moat is dead is self-serving marketing

AMD is incentivized to claim CUDA is no longer a moat, but real-world reliability from billions of software runs makes CUDA durable; AI-generated kernels haven't proven they work…

$NVDA···bullish· hightae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's strategic investments in CoreWeave, Lumentum, Coherent will create trillion-dollar portfolio

Nvidia is enabling the supply chain by investing in companies like CoreWeave, Lumentum, and Coherent so they can build capacity to serve exploding GPU cloud demand. These stakes w…

$CRWV···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia's CoreWeave investment proves hyperscaler GPU cloud is highly profitable

Nvidia's early investment in CoreWeave generated significant returns, validating the thesis that GPU cloud businesses can achieve 60-80% inference margins and generate massive fre…

$LITE···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia bought stake in Lumentum to secure optical supply chain

Nvidia invested in optical component maker Lumentum to ensure supply for its networking stack, part of a broader strategy to lock up scarce components.

$COHR···bullish· mediumtae kim

Tae Kim: Nvidia bought stake in Coherent to secure optical supply chain

Nvidia invested in optical component maker Coherent to ensure supply for its networking stack, part of a broader strategy to lock up scarce components.