Duolingo’s Revenge: The 70%+ Collapse That Won’t Age Well.

2025-11-25 · 7 company · 3 thematic

sentiment

6 bull1 bear0 neu

speakers

antonio linares

Antonio Linares runs a concentrated six-stock portfolio plus micro investments, focusing on 'singularity scalers' — companies with proprietary data moats that compound value via AI scaling laws. He bought Palantir at ~$7, held through 2022-2024 drawdowns, and teaches a course on modern value creation processes. His framework emphasizes betting early on extraordinary companies, holding forever, and learning from concentrated mistakes.

quote

“So today I'm going to explain why actually this is a lot like the Netflix case in 2022... People are saying that Duolingo is going to be disrupted by AI and it's fundamentally the same situation and what's even more interesting is that the…”

—antonio linares

now playing · $DUOL

$DUOL···bullish· high· posantonio linares

Duolingo 70% decline creates buying opportunity as AI proves tailwind not headwind

Duolingo's engagement metrics (DAU/MAU ratio) are accelerating post-ChatGPT, proving AI enhances rather than disrupts its model. The company's proprietary dataset of 1B+ daily exe…

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Palantir government revenue deceleration in 2022 was false disruption signal before re-acceleration

Palantir's government revenue growth decelerated for many quarters in 2022, leading critics to call it a consulting company. Investors who overfit to quarterly numbers missed the…

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The speaker maintained conviction in AMD throughout 2025 when the stock traded at $80 and sentiment was negative, demonstrating consistent process of buying quality during narrati…

$SPOT···bullish· medium· posantonio linares

Spotify 2022 investment followed same contrarian pattern as Palantir and Duolingo

The speaker applied the same contrarian framework to Spotify in 2022, buying during pessimism based on fundamental durability rather than quarterly optics.

$NFLX···bullish· highantonio linares

Netflix 2022 70% crash and 400-500% recovery validates buying quality during narrative-driven selloffs

Netflix's 2022 collapse on fears of Disney+ disruption proved wrong as the company pivoted to ads, widened its moat, and grew free cash flow per share 400-500% from the lows. The…

$CHGG···bearish· highantonio linares

Chegg exemplifies true AI disruption with declining engagement as students prefer LLMs directly

Chegg's SEO-based Q&A model has been disrupted by LLMs because students prefer direct LLM interaction — quicker, more efficient, better outcomes. The hallmark was decreasing engag…

$COST···bullish· mediumantonio linares

Costco's goodwill-compounding model is blueprint for both Duolingo and speaker's own business

Costco's algorithm of generating insurmountable goodwill through customer value is the model Duolingo follows and the speaker emulates in his own business, representing a durable…