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Macro & Rates · US dollar remains dominant in global trade (75%) even among adversaries, providing structural national security advantage
now playing · Macro & Rates
Macro & Ratestailwindscore 9/10william hockey
US dollar remains dominant in global trade (75%) even among adversaries, providing structural national security advantage
Dollar denominates 75% of global trade including between adversaries like China/Russia, giving US unique financial warfare capability via sanctions; this reinforces demand for US financial…
AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10william hockey
AI value will accrue to incumbents with massive distribution and high cost structures, not AI model companies
William argues AI companies themselves won't capture value; instead, companies with massive distribution (big brands, big banks) and high labor/tech costs will benefit most from AI efficien…
Fintechtailwindscore 8/10william hockey
Constrained emerging markets drive financial innovation (M-Pesa, Kaspi, Rawbank) and have massive unmet demand for dollar-denominated financial services
Countries with currency instability and low banking penetration innovate faster in financial services (mobile payments, super-apps) and rely heavily on USD, creating opportunity for US-regu…
Venture Capitalheadwindscore 8/10william hockey
VC funding creates misaligned incentives and short-termism; self-funded profitability enables true long-termism and employee ownership
VC money acts like heroin—addictive and hard to quit—forcing companies to optimize for next raise rather than long-term value; self-funding allows 10-year investment horizons, employee liqu…
Payments & Banking Infrastructuretailwindscore 8/10william hockey
US banking infrastructure (Fed) is technologically superior to crypto/stablecoins; implementation gaps at community banks create opportunity for modern API layers
Fed systems already offer 24/7 real-time settlement faster than stablecoins; the bottleneck is implementation at small banks due to business model constraints, not core infrastructure, crea…
Defense Techtailwindscore 7/10william hockey
Financial services and dollar dominance are the first line of national defense (sanctions before missiles); Silicon Valley should embrace this role
US uses dollar-based sanctions to enforce foreign policy without military risk; financial infrastructure companies are strategic national assets akin to defense contractors, and Silicon Val…
Fintechtailwindscore 7/10william hockey
AI will enable frictionless financial UX by solving fraud detection for vulnerable populations, unlocking instant payments for everyone else
Current financial friction exists to protect 5-10% of vulnerable users from fraud; AI can detect fraud in real-time at human-level accuracy, allowing removal of friction for the majority wh…