▶ 22:10 · $ANTHROPIC · Anthropic stake was $10B of Leopold's $45B AUM; fund attempted to sell $100M at $1.1T valuation to shore up liquidity

episode briefing

Leo Sold, Ferrari Undefeated, Meta Down, Microsoft Up, Market Turmoil

2026-07-30 · 20 company · 24 thematic

sentiment

16 bull2 bear2 neu

speakers

guom verdon

Founder of Extropic, pioneering thermodynamic computing — probabilistic hardware for generative AI; previously vocal advocate for effective accelerationism (e/acc); background in physics and AI research.

michael kim

Founded Sindana Capital in 2010 as an LP focused on seed-stage venture funds; manages nearly $3B for US endowments and foundations; early backer of Forerunner, NEO, Founders Fund, and other top-performing funds.

jun park

Co-founder and CEO of Simile, an applied AI lab building foundation models of human behavior for enterprise simulation; raised $200M at $2B valuation; works with Fortune 50 retailers, banks, and CPG companies.

karen pure

Co-founder and CEO of K2 Space, building giant power-dense satellites for orbital compute and communications; raised $500M, crossed $1B in signed contracts; first mission Gravitas operating successfully on Falcon 9.

vlad tennv

Co-founder and CEO of Robinhood (HOOD); led expansion into 13 $100M+ ARR business lines including Gold Card, Legend desktop trading, futures, crypto, and Robinhood Social; advocates for broad individual ownership of financial assets.

martin skrey

Independent financial journalist who broke the Situational Awareness fund liquidation story; former hedge fund analyst with experience at Kramer's firm; runs a subscription terminal for market intelligence.

quote

“we got offered uh, a look at hund00 million of anthropic stock... the offer was at 1.1 trillion uh equivalent market cap... it's unclear whether that was sold or half of it was sold.”

—martin skrey

now playing · $ANTHROPIC

$SITUATIONAL-AWARENESSbearish· highmartin skrey

Leopold Aschenbrenner's 4x levered AI infrastructure fund blows up, forcing liquidation

The fund concentrated in AI infrastructure names (Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave) while shorting software like Adobe, but 4x leverage meant a 25% drawdown wiped out equity; pr…

$ANTHROPICneutral· highmartin skrey

Anthropic stake was $10B of Leopold's $45B AUM; fund attempted to sell $100M at $1.1T valuation to shore up liquidity

The private Anthropic holding was the fund's crown jewel; as public positions crashed, the fund tried to sell a slice of Anthropic at roughly current markup ($1.1T) to raise cash,…

$CITADELbullish· highmartin skrey

Ken Griffin's Citadel emerges as buyer of last resort, purchasing blown-up fund portfolio at steep discount

Citadel bid on the liquidated portfolio alongside Jane Street and Millennium, securing a 3-4B instant markup; this reinforces Citadel's brand as the go-to liquidity provider for p…

$KYOSHA···bullish· medium· posmartin skrey

Martin Skrey holds Kyosha at 3x earnings alongside Leopold's portfolio

Kyosha trades at a deeply discounted 3x earnings, and as a holder Skrey believes the forced liquidation of levered funds creates opportunity to own quality assets through the vola…

$RACE···bullish· mediumjordi hays

Hays bullish on Ferrari EV: design growing, collectors buying for history and completeness

The Luch's polarizing design is growing on observers; collectors are buying for historical significance, brand completeness, and potential allocation advantages, making the 500-un…

$RACE···bearish· mediumjohn coogan

Coogan bearish on Ferrari EV: brand dilution without volume upside

The Luch EV hurts Ferrari's brand unless it drives massive volume like Porsche's Cayenne or Lamborghini's Urus; at 500 units it's a halo car that doesn't fund the rest of the line…

$EXTROPICbullish· high· posguom verdon

Verdon: thermodynamic computing enables probabilistic AI at far lower power, targeting sparse workloads and US manufacturing

Generative AI is inherently probabilistic; running it on deterministic electronics wastes huge power maintaining exact states. Extropic's chips operate probabilistically at ultra-…

$NEObullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Neo's scholar pipeline into top CS programs yields Cursor, KI, Cognition, Deel, Ramp

Neo's competitive edge is its Neo Scholar program recruiting elite CS students from Harvard, MIT, Stanford, CMU, giving Ali Partovi first access to generational founders; portfoli…

$NOVAbullish· medium· posmichael kim

Kim: Nova's 25/23/19-year-old GP team hustles on campuses for AI-native, small-team founders

Nova's extremely young GP team (Carlo, Coco, Henry) spends intensive time on college campuses, aligning with the thesis that AI-native companies with small teams can reach growth-…

$ZFELLOWSbullish· medium· posmichael kim

Z Fellows' campus presence provides early access to young founders

Kim said Corey Levy's campus presence at Z Fellows and Josh Browder's role on the Thiel Fellowship selection committee provide access to promising young founders.

$LOWERCASE-CAPITALneutral· highmichael kim

Kim: Fund I at 204x, anti-portfolio regret for not investing

Lowercase Capital I returned 204x, but Sindana passed on it due to discipline around seed-only focus; Kim acknowledges this as a significant anti-portfolio miss.

$FOUNDERS-FUNDbullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Fund II approaching 300x driven by SpaceX, one of three best venture funds ever

Founders Fund II is on track for ~300x returns primarily from SpaceX ownership, making it one of the three highest-returning venture funds in history alongside Lowercase I and Blo…

$BLOCKCHAIN-CAPITALbullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Fund II at 157x heading to 250x, top-three all-time venture return

Blockchain Capital's second fund has achieved 157x net returns and is compounding toward 250x, ranking among the three best venture funds ever alongside Founders Fund II and Lower…

$FOUNDERS-FUND-2bullish· high· posmichael kim

Michael Kim: Founders Fund 2 approaching 300x, driven by SpaceX

Founders Fund 2 is on track to become a ~300x fund, largely due to its SpaceX position, and Kim regrets not having more allocation given the fund's historic performance.

$BLOCKCHAIN-CAPITAL-2bullish· high· posmichael kim

Michael Kim: Blockchain Capital 2 at 157x, targeting 250x

Blockchain Capital Fund 2 has already returned 157x and is on pace for 250x, making it one of the best venture funds ever, and Kim holds a position.

$SIMILEbullish· high· posjun park

Park: human behavior foundation models democratize consumer insight for enterprises via scalable simulation

Simile builds foundation models of human subjective behavior using representative population data from partners like Gallup; customers filter populations and test products/message…

$K2-SPACEbullish· high· poskaren pure

Pure: giant satellites unlock orbital compute via power scaling, dual-use commercial/government model, Falcon 9 compatible

Power is the fundamental metric for space infrastructure (comms, compute, sensors); K2 builds the largest possible satellites to maximize power per launch, proving 100kW+ class on…

$SPCX···bullish· mediumkaren pure

SpaceX dominates Founders Fund returns; Starship delays push K2 Space to Falcon 9 compatibility

SpaceX is the single largest driver of Founders Fund 2's ~300x return; Starship timeline slips forced K2 Space to design satellites for Falcon 9, securing $1B in contracts tied to…

$HOOD···bullish· high· posvlad tennv

Robinhood hits 13 business lines >$100M ARR, Gold Card at 3% cash back drives million users

Robinhood has diversified into 13 distinct $100M+ ARR lines (Legend desktop trading, Gold Card, futures, crypto, etc.), creating a durable multi-engine revenue model; Gold Card's…

$HOOD···bullish· high· posvlad tennv

Tennv: 13 business lines >$100M ARR each, Gold Card at 3% cashback driving million users, expanding into social, futures, international

Robinhood's diversification across 13 high-revenue lines (Legend desktop trading, Gold Card, crypto, futures, social network with verified trades) creates a self-reinforcing ecosy…

←

▶ 22:10 · $ANTHROPIC · Anthropic stake was $10B of Leopold's $45B AUM; fund attempted to sell $100M at $1.1T valuation to shore up liquidity

episode briefing

TBPN

Leo Sold, Ferrari Undefeated, Meta Down, Microsoft Up, Market Turmoil

2026-07-30 · 20 company · 24 thematic

sentiment

16 bull2 bear2 neu

speakers

quote

“we got offered uh, a look at hund00 million of anthropic stock... the offer was at 1.1 trillion uh equivalent market cap... it's unclear whether that was sold or half of it was sold.”

—martin skrey

now playing · $ANTHROPIC

$SITUATIONAL-AWARENESSbearish· highmartin skrey

Leopold Aschenbrenner's 4x levered AI infrastructure fund blows up, forcing liquidation

The fund concentrated in AI infrastructure names (Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave) while shorting software like Adobe, but 4x leverage meant a 25% drawdown wiped out equity; pr…

$ANTHROPICneutral· highmartin skrey

Anthropic stake was $10B of Leopold's $45B AUM; fund attempted to sell $100M at $1.1T valuation to shore up liquidity

The private Anthropic holding was the fund's crown jewel; as public positions crashed, the fund tried to sell a slice of Anthropic at roughly current markup ($1.1T) to raise cash,…

$CITADELbullish· highmartin skrey

Ken Griffin's Citadel emerges as buyer of last resort, purchasing blown-up fund portfolio at steep discount

Citadel bid on the liquidated portfolio alongside Jane Street and Millennium, securing a 3-4B instant markup; this reinforces Citadel's brand as the go-to liquidity provider for p…

$KYOSHA···bullish· medium· posmartin skrey

Martin Skrey holds Kyosha at 3x earnings alongside Leopold's portfolio

Kyosha trades at a deeply discounted 3x earnings, and as a holder Skrey believes the forced liquidation of levered funds creates opportunity to own quality assets through the vola…

$RACE···bullish· mediumjordi hays

Hays bullish on Ferrari EV: design growing, collectors buying for history and completeness

The Luch's polarizing design is growing on observers; collectors are buying for historical significance, brand completeness, and potential allocation advantages, making the 500-un…

$RACE···bearish· mediumjohn coogan

Coogan bearish on Ferrari EV: brand dilution without volume upside

The Luch EV hurts Ferrari's brand unless it drives massive volume like Porsche's Cayenne or Lamborghini's Urus; at 500 units it's a halo car that doesn't fund the rest of the line…

$EXTROPICbullish· high· posguom verdon

Verdon: thermodynamic computing enables probabilistic AI at far lower power, targeting sparse workloads and US manufacturing

Generative AI is inherently probabilistic; running it on deterministic electronics wastes huge power maintaining exact states. Extropic's chips operate probabilistically at ultra-…

$NEObullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Neo's scholar pipeline into top CS programs yields Cursor, KI, Cognition, Deel, Ramp

Neo's competitive edge is its Neo Scholar program recruiting elite CS students from Harvard, MIT, Stanford, CMU, giving Ali Partovi first access to generational founders; portfoli…

$NOVAbullish· medium· posmichael kim

Kim: Nova's 25/23/19-year-old GP team hustles on campuses for AI-native, small-team founders

Nova's extremely young GP team (Carlo, Coco, Henry) spends intensive time on college campuses, aligning with the thesis that AI-native companies with small teams can reach growth-…

$ZFELLOWSbullish· medium· posmichael kim

Z Fellows' campus presence provides early access to young founders

Kim said Corey Levy's campus presence at Z Fellows and Josh Browder's role on the Thiel Fellowship selection committee provide access to promising young founders.

$LOWERCASE-CAPITALneutral· highmichael kim

Kim: Fund I at 204x, anti-portfolio regret for not investing

Lowercase Capital I returned 204x, but Sindana passed on it due to discipline around seed-only focus; Kim acknowledges this as a significant anti-portfolio miss.

$FOUNDERS-FUNDbullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Fund II approaching 300x driven by SpaceX, one of three best venture funds ever

Founders Fund II is on track for ~300x returns primarily from SpaceX ownership, making it one of the three highest-returning venture funds in history alongside Lowercase I and Blo…

$BLOCKCHAIN-CAPITALbullish· high· posmichael kim

Kim: Fund II at 157x heading to 250x, top-three all-time venture return

Blockchain Capital's second fund has achieved 157x net returns and is compounding toward 250x, ranking among the three best venture funds ever alongside Founders Fund II and Lower…

$FOUNDERS-FUND-2bullish· high· posmichael kim

Michael Kim: Founders Fund 2 approaching 300x, driven by SpaceX

Founders Fund 2 is on track to become a ~300x fund, largely due to its SpaceX position, and Kim regrets not having more allocation given the fund's historic performance.

$BLOCKCHAIN-CAPITAL-2bullish· high· posmichael kim

Michael Kim: Blockchain Capital 2 at 157x, targeting 250x

Blockchain Capital Fund 2 has already returned 157x and is on pace for 250x, making it one of the best venture funds ever, and Kim holds a position.

$SIMILEbullish· high· posjun park

Park: human behavior foundation models democratize consumer insight for enterprises via scalable simulation

Simile builds foundation models of human subjective behavior using representative population data from partners like Gallup; customers filter populations and test products/message…

$K2-SPACEbullish· high· poskaren pure

Pure: giant satellites unlock orbital compute via power scaling, dual-use commercial/government model, Falcon 9 compatible

Power is the fundamental metric for space infrastructure (comms, compute, sensors); K2 builds the largest possible satellites to maximize power per launch, proving 100kW+ class on…

$SPCX···bullish· mediumkaren pure

SpaceX dominates Founders Fund returns; Starship delays push K2 Space to Falcon 9 compatibility

SpaceX is the single largest driver of Founders Fund 2's ~300x return; Starship timeline slips forced K2 Space to design satellites for Falcon 9, securing $1B in contracts tied to…

$HOOD···bullish· high· posvlad tennv

Robinhood hits 13 business lines >$100M ARR, Gold Card at 3% cash back drives million users

Robinhood has diversified into 13 distinct $100M+ ARR lines (Legend desktop trading, Gold Card, futures, crypto, etc.), creating a durable multi-engine revenue model; Gold Card's…

$HOOD···bullish· high· posvlad tennv

Tennv: 13 business lines >$100M ARR each, Gold Card at 3% cashback driving million users, expanding into social, futures, international

Robinhood's diversification across 13 high-revenue lines (Legend desktop trading, Gold Card, crypto, futures, social network with verified trades) creates a self-reinforcing ecosy…