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▶ 2:35 · $CRWV · The “Wildly Concerning” AI CapEx Debt Bubble
episode briefing
The Information

The “Wildly Concerning” AI CapEx Debt Bubble

2025-11-19 · 5 company · 16 thematic
sentiment
1 bull4 bear0 neu
speakers
paul kadroski

General Partner at SK Ventures who argues AI infrastructure capex is forming a debt-fueled bubble analogous to historical overbuilds, and focuses fund on application-layer companies benefiting from cheap inference.

quote
“Look at what's happened with respect to some of the riskier debt structures like that that's already on top of Corewave or look what's happened with respect to the increasing debt at a company like Oracle. Both of which have seen their uh…”
—paul kadroski
now playing · $CRWV
$CRWV···bearish· mediumpaul kadroski
Kadroski flags CoreWeave CDS near doubling as debt risk signal
CoreWeave's credit default swaps have nearly doubled, signaling rising debt risk for AI infrastructure companies reliant on aggressive capex funding.
$ORCL···bearish· mediumpaul kadroski
Kadroski notes Oracle CDS up 100bps amid AI capex debt buildup
Oracle's credit default swaps have risen ~100 basis points, reflecting increased risk from new debt load taken on for AI data center buildout.
$AMZN···bearish· highpaul kadroski
Kadroski calls Amazon's 40-year bond at 80bps spread ridiculous
Amazon issued 40-year debt at tight spreads (80bps over Treasuries) implying zero risk, which is absurd given uncertainty over a 40-year horizon.
$NVDA···bearish· highpaul kadroski
Kadroski predicts Nvidia dominance will collapse like 1920s electrical giants
Nvidia's dominant market share mirrors 1920s electrical companies that comprised >50% market cap before the crash; overinvestment in redundant supply and exhausted training data w…
$SK-VENTURESbullish· medium· pospaul kadroski
Kadroski says SK Ventures avoids capex side, bets on cheap-token applications
SK Ventures focuses on application-layer companies that benefit from collapsing token prices (cheap inference) for mundane enterprise tasks like supplier reconciliation, not on in…