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▶ 29:25 · $SKHY · $005930.KS · $MU · SK Hynix profits surge but memory supply cannot expand before 2030 due to clean room and EUV tool bottlenecks
episode briefing
SemiAnalysis

Ep. 030 - Rubin Ultra Drops From 1 TB to 192GB of HBM (Memory)

2026-09-14 · 10 company · 0 thematic
sentiment
6 bull0 bear4 neu
speakers
myron

SemiAnalysis analyst who authored the article on HBM stack height changes; covers memory supply chains, accelerator architectures, and AI infrastructure economics.

quote
“SKHEX printing, you know, massive profits, people going to the sole Lamborghini dealerships the day after the paychecks are cut and buying out all the cars... why can't they just produce more? Why can't they increase supply and respond to…”
—myron
now playing · $SKHY · $005930.KS · $MU
$NVDA···neutral· highmyron
Nvidia cuts Rubin Ultra HBM from 1TB to 192GB as supply constraints force bandwidth-over-capacity design
Nvidia is redesigning Rubin Ultra to use 8-high HBM4 (192GB) instead of 16-high HBM4E (1TB) because HBM wafer supply cannot keep up with logic wafer capacity; the shift optimizes…
$AVGO···neutral· lowmyron
Broadcom joins Nvidia and Google in securing HBM supply as custom accelerator demand grows
Broadcom is among the major customers securing HBM supply for its custom AI accelerators, indicating broad-based demand for memory across merchant and custom silicon.
$GOOGL···neutral· lowmyron
Google secures HBM supply for TPU roadmap amid industry-wide memory constraints
Google is actively managing HBM allocations for its TPU accelerator program, reflecting the same supply chain pressures facing Nvidia and custom silicon vendors.
$TSM···bullish· mediummyron
TSMC logic wafer and CoWoS capacity becomes next bottleneck as HBM stack height reduction doubles cube count
Moving to 4-high HBM more than doubles harvestable cubes, shifting the bottleneck from HBM wafers to TSMC leading-edge logic wafers and advanced packaging capacity needed to co-pa…
$SKHY···bullish· highmyron
SK Hynix profits surge but memory supply cannot expand before 2030 due to clean room and EUV tool bottlenecks
Memory vendors are printing massive profits but cannot respond to demand signals quickly because adding wafer capacity requires building clean rooms, filling them with equipment,…
$005930.KS···bullish· mediumunknown
Samsung benefits from memory tightness but faces same structural capacity constraints as peers
Samsung's memory business is doing well alongside SK Hynix and Micron, but all three face identical long lead times for capacity expansion driven by clean room construction and AS…
$MU···bullish· mediumunknown
Micron shares memory vendor tailwinds but cannot accelerate supply due to semiconductor manufacturing lead times
Micron is benefiting from tight DRAM/HBM markets but faces the same multi-year capacity expansion constraints as SK Hynix and Samsung, limiting ability to meet AI-driven demand.
$ASML···bullish· highmyron
ASML EUV tool throughput is the ultimate bottleneck preventing memory capacity expansion this decade
Memory capacity growth is gated by ASML's ability to produce EUV lithography tools, which themselves require specialized suppliers (e.g., ultra-smooth mirrors) with long lead time…
$META···bullish· mediummyron
Meta drives custom accelerator SKUs with reduced HBM height to optimize cost and supply chain efficiency
Meta is actively requesting semi-custom accelerator variants (e.g., MI450 with 8-high HBM) to avoid overprovisioning expensive memory capacity it doesn't need, setting a precedent…
$AMD···neutral· mediummyron
AMD MI450 offers Meta custom 8-high HBM variant as accelerator vendors adopt multi-SKU memory strategies
AMD is already providing custom memory configurations (8-high vs 12-high HBM on MI450) for hyperscalers like Meta, signaling a broader industry shift toward multiple SKUs per acce…