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▶ 16:34 · $TOST · Why Now is the Best Time to Buy Public Software Companies

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$TOST···bullish· high· posmitchell green

Lead Edge sold Toast secondary at $40-50, stock now $30 but still cheap

Bought at 10x revenue growing 150%; sold secondary at $40-50 (6 years ago) to lock in forward IRR; believes stock is cheap at $30 but disciplined exit strategy prioritizes IRR ove…

$OPENAIbearish· highmitchell green

OpenAI at $100B valuation deemed insane due to model commoditization risk

Models will commoditize as hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) possess superior data and cost advantages; open-source alternatives like DeepSeek run locally at fraction of co…

$BYTEDANCEbullish· medium· posmitchell green

Contrarian ByteDance buy during peak China fear doubled as Alibaba rebounded

Purchased ByteDance shares two years ago when China sentiment was extremely negative; cites Alibaba doubling off lows despite no growth at 15x earnings as evidence that fear-drive…

$ZM···bullish· medium· posmitchell green

Creative fund-derivative structure yielded 2-3x on Zoom secondary

Unable to buy primary or direct secondary due to Sequoia control; purchased LP interests in early Zoom backers via fund derivative, gaining economic exposure without control or in…

$CLICKHOUSEbullish· medium· posmitchell green

Early ClickHouse investor cites minimal burn and exceptional growth economics

Early investor in ClickHouse database company; highlights extremely low cumulative burn relative to revenue scale and growth rates never seen before with strong unit economics, be…

$GRAFANA-LABSbullish· medium· posmitchell green

Grafana Labs early bet on observability infrastructure competing with Datadog

Early investor in Grafana Labs, an infrastructure monitoring competitor to Datadog; notes consumption-based model growth rates of high-20s to 30% at scale with excellent economics…

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