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▶ 3:12 · $WMT · How "Safe" Stocks Have Become Incredibly Risky | $WMT $COST $XOM $KO
episode briefing
Asymmetric Investing

How "Safe" Stocks Have Become Incredibly Risky | $WMT $COST $XOM $KO

2026-02-19 · 6 company · 6 thematic
sentiment
0 bull6 bear0 neu
speakers
travis hoium

Travis Hoium hosts the Asymmetric Investing podcast/YouTube channel and manages the Asymmetric portfolio. He conducts fundamental research using Fiscal AI and focuses on platform business models, healthcare technology, and consumer subscription businesses. He discloses holding Hims & Hers as one of his largest positions.

quote
“Walmart is up 12%. That may not sound like a lot, but Walmart is a company that's growing its revenue at about a 5% annualized rate over the past 5 years. You go back 10 years, it's only a 3.8% growth rate. So, this is not a high growth co…”
—travis hoium
now playing · $WMT
$WMT···bearish· hightravis hoium
Walmart's multiple expansion creates 75-80% downside risk
Walmart's P/E has compounded at ~12% annually and price-to-free-cash-flow at ~18% over the past decade despite only 3-5% revenue growth, making the stock vulnerable to severe mult…
$COST···bearish· hightravis hoium
Costco's price-to-sales tripled despite slowing growth
Costco trades at 54x earnings with revenue growth decelerating from 9.2% (10-year) to 6.7% (3-year), and its price-to-sales multiple has tripled over the past decade, creating sig…
$KO···bearish· hightravis hoium
Coca-Cola trades at 26x earnings despite flat revenue
Coca-Cola's 10-year revenue growth is only ~8% total (not annualized) with relatively flat revenue, yet the stock trades at 26x earnings and 24x forward earnings — a premium multi…
$XOM···bearish· hightravis hoium
Exxon up 189% in 5 years despite 20-year net income decline
Exxon Mobil has risen 189% over five years to a 22x P/E despite net income being lower today than 20 years ago, reflecting a flight-to-safety premium disconnected from fundamental…
$ETN···bearish· hightravis hoium
Eaton at 37x earnings faces AI capex reversal risk
Eaton trades at 37x earnings (28x forward) with only 2.8% 10-year revenue CAGR; recent pickup is tied to AI data center buildout, but capex growth will likely turn negative in com…
$CAT···bearish· hightravis hoium
Caterpillar up 280% in 5 years on AI and mining capex tailwinds
Caterpillar has surged 280% in five years to 41x earnings driven by mining and AI infrastructure capex tailwinds, but the multiple expansion creates significant downside risk when…