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$WMT · How "Safe" Stocks Have Become Incredibly Risky | $WMT $COST $XOM $KO
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$WMT···bearish· hightravis hoium
Walmart's multiple expansion creates 75-80% downside risk
Walmart's P/E has compounded at ~12% annually and price-to-free-cash-flow at ~18% over the past decade despite only 3-5% revenue growth, making the stock vulnerable to severe mult…
$WMT···bearish· hightravis hoium
Walmart's multiple expansion creates 75-80% downside risk
Walmart trades at 45x P/E and 67x P/FCF despite only 5% revenue growth; multiple expansion (P/E CAGR ~12%, P/FCF ~18%) has driven returns, making severe multiple compression a maj…
$COST···bearish· hightravis hoium
Costco's price-to-sales tripled despite slowing growth
Costco trades at 54x earnings with revenue growth decelerating from 9.2% (10-year) to 6.7% (3-year), and its price-to-sales multiple has tripled over the past decade, creating sig…
$COST···bearish· hightravis hoium
Costco's P/S multiple tripled despite slowing growth
Costco trades at 54x P/E with revenue growth decelerating from 9.2% (10yr) to 6.7% (3yr); price-to-sales multiple has tripled over a decade, creating significant multiple compress…
$KO···bearish· hightravis hoium
Coca-Cola trades at 26x earnings despite flat revenue
Coca-Cola's 10-year revenue growth is only ~8% total (not annualized) with relatively flat revenue, yet the stock trades at 26x earnings and 24x forward earnings — a premium multi…
$KO···bearish· mediumtravis hoium
Coca-Cola trades at 26x earnings despite flat revenue and 8% decade growth
Coca-Cola's 10-year growth is only 8% with relatively flat revenue, yet it trades at 26x earnings and 24x forward earnings — a premium multiple for a low-growth business driven by…
$XOM···bearish· hightravis hoium
Exxon up 189% in 5 years despite 20-year net income decline
Exxon Mobil has risen 189% over five years to a 22x P/E despite net income being lower today than 20 years ago, reflecting a flight-to-safety premium disconnected from fundamental…
$XOM···bearish· hightravis hoium
Exxon up 189% in 5 years despite 20-year net income decline
Exxon Mobil has risen 189% over 5 years to 22x P/E, but net income is lower than 20 years ago; investors are paying a premium for perceived certainty despite cyclical commodity ex…
$ETN···bearish· hightravis hoium
Eaton at 37x earnings faces AI capex reversal risk
Eaton trades at 37x earnings (28x forward) with only 2.8% 10-year revenue CAGR; recent pickup is tied to AI data center buildout, but capex growth will likely turn negative in com…
$ETN···bearish· hightravis hoium
Eaton at 37x P/E faces double risk from AI capex slowdown and multiple compression
Eaton trades at 37x P/E (28x forward) with only 2.8% 10-year revenue growth; recent pickup is tied to AI data center buildout, but capex growth will likely turn negative in coming…
$CAT···bearish· hightravis hoium
Caterpillar up 280% in 5 years on AI and mining capex tailwinds
Caterpillar has surged 280% in five years to 41x earnings driven by mining and AI infrastructure capex tailwinds, but the multiple expansion creates significant downside risk when…
$CAT···bearish· mediumtravis hoium
Caterpillar up 280% in 5 years to 41x P/E on mining and AI construction tailwinds
Caterpillar shares have surged 280% (100% since April 2025) to 41x P/E, driven by mining capex and AI data center construction demand; both operational tailwinds and multiple expa…