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AI Agents · Coding agents (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor) exploding: million-user growth, automating software development
now playing · AI Agents
Memory & Storagetailwindscore 9/10tay kim
HBM structural shortage: only 3 suppliers, 625x demand growth, 2-3 year capacity lag
AI accelerators need 25x more memory per GPU and 25x more GPUs in 2 years (Michael Dell). Memory companies cut capex in 2022; takes 3-4 years to expand. Only SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron can m…
AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10tay kim
Nvidia supply chain lock-up (memory, wafers, optical) and TSMC capex surge enable trillion-dollar GPU demand
Nvidia has locked up all critical components: HBM memory, TSMC wafers, optical lasers. TSMC guiding for dramatically higher capex over next 3 years. Jensen confident supply constraints reso…
Cybersecuritytailwindscore 8/10feras
Software supply chain crisis: AI generates code faster than maintainers can patch, attackers exploit at scale
Three forces converging: 1) AI generates unprecedented code volume with less vetting, 2) Frontier models find thousands of vulnerabilities in open source, 3) Attackers exploit supply chain…
AI Agentstailwindscore 8/10tay kim
Coding agents (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor) exploding: million-user growth, automating software development
Coding agents are the fastest-growing enterprise AI market. Anthropic's Claude Code adding million users every few weeks. OpenAI Codex 2.0 accelerating. Google absent in this category. Comp…
Smart Glasses & Wearablestailwindscore 7/10john coogan
Smart glasses product market fit starts with prescription wearers; Google partners Warby Parker/Gentle Monster, Meta with Ray-Ban
People who already wear glasses all day are natural early adopters for smart features. Warby Parker provides distribution for Google/Samsung. Gentle Monster design hides camera better than…
Enterprise Softwaretailwindscore 7/10dylan field
Design becomes differentiator as code commoditizes; Figma unifies design/code canvas, Mercury builds agentic finance CLI
As AI writes code, design taste and UX become competitive moat. Figma's design agent handles drudgery, enables exploration. Mercury's CLI/MCP lets AI agents execute finance workflows (invoi…
IPO Marketmixedscore 7/10tay kim
Blockbuster IPO pipeline: SpaceX $80B raise at $1.5T+ valuation, largest ever, venture funds printing historic returns
SpaceX S-1 imminent, Goldman lead left. Founders Fund/Valor $60B+ gains, Sequoia $20B+. Early believers (2004, 2010) validated. But valuation extreme - even insiders appear cautious. Could…
Venture Capitaltailwindscore 7/10marcus million
Bootstrapped success stories (Minted, Mercury) vs mega-fund returns (SpaceX); organic brand beats paid acquisition
Minted: 3-person team, 5 years bootstrapped, 99.5% organic, founder content flywheel. Mercury: 7-year grind, 2.5x growth, LLM recommendations as new channel. Both avoid paid ads until brand…
Robotics & Physical AIheadwindscore 6/10john coogan
Humanoid robots still falling and unable to self-recover; dance demos not ready for paid shows
Robot fell during dance, couldn't get up (no push-up recovery hardcoded). Carried off stage. Teleoperation fallback needed. 'Singularity delayed.' Robot dance shows need refund policies. Ph…
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlsriskscore 6/10tay kim
Nvidia China exposure unreliable; US/China license ping-pong makes revenue unpredictable
Jensen got approvals then reversed weeks later. Gaming GPUs incrementally banned. China says no to US-approved licenses. Even if approved, volumes limited. Nvidia valuation should exclude C…