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Private Markets · Information edge in private markets: corporate networks and employee relationships yield real-time revenue data

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Private Marketstailwindscore 9/10nacho vilela

Secondary market investing: buying employee equity in late-stage private companies at discounts

Vilela's core strategy: access employee liquidity needs in proven late-stage companies (Stripe, Okta, CoreWeave) via platforms like Forge; information edge comes from corporate VC networks…

Public Markets & Valuationtailwindscore 9/10nacho vilela

Cycle discipline: strict valuation playbook prevents FOMO buying at peaks, enables buying at troughs

Vilela's 'playbook' sets intrinsic value per company; buys only below that price, sells above it; avoided scooter/gorillas bubbles in 2021, bought Netskope/CoreWeave in 2022 correction; 44%…

Venture Capitaltailwindscore 8/10nacho vilela

Corporate VC without exclusivity outperforms: Workday Ventures model generated 22x fund returns

Workday's strategic VC succeeded by refusing board seats/exclusivity, focusing on product feedback loops and M&A optionality; Vilela replicated this as independent secondary investor, provi…

Private Marketstailwindscore 8/10nacho vilela

Information edge in private markets: corporate networks and employee relationships yield real-time revenue data

Private companies don't file 10-Ks; Vilela cultivates Workday-era corporate development contacts and employee shareholders to get quarterly ARR, net retention, and pipeline data before seco…

AI Bubble / Capex Debateheadwindscore 8/10nacho vilela

AI foundation models overvalued: no moats, winner-take-all unclear, avoids 6B+ valuations

All LLMs run on same transformer architecture; differentiation only in compute scale; any product asking $6B+ valuation is uninvestable until real revenue defensibility emerges (e.g., Sales…

Cybersecuritytailwindscore 8/10nacho vilela

Cybersecurity for AI adoption: next investable wave as enterprises secure LLM deployments

Legacy cyber vendors (Netskope, Okta) are retooling for AI-era threats; Vilela bought Netskope secondary at discount and sees sustained demand as companies must secure agentic workflows and…

Enterprise Softwaretailwindscore 7/10nacho vilela

Enterprise SaaS focus: recurring revenue, known customers, predictable multiples vs consumer lottery tickets

Vilela explicitly avoids consumer/TikTok-style bets; only invests in enterprise software where customer logos, contract lengths, net dollar retention, and payback periods are verifiable; en…

Defense Techtailwindscore 7/10nacho vilela

Defense tech with multi-decade sole-source contracts: Shield AI drone swarms for DoD/NATO

Shield AI's Hivemind autonomy software locks in 25-year government contracts with guaranteed funding; rare combination of deep tech moat and revenue visibility in early-stage defense sector.