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Open Source AI · Thinking Machines' Inkling adopts Red Hat model: open weights + paid fine-tuning API
now playing · Open Source AI
AI Geopolitics & Export Controlsheadwindscore 8/10john coogan
Beijing restricts overseas access to Chinese models; US weighs Huawei-style bans on Chinese AI adoption
China's reported curbs on overseas access to top models (Kimi, GLM, DeepSeek) create a vacuum for Western open-source alternatives like Thinking Machines, while Anthropic's distillation acc…
Semiconductorsmixedscore 8/10john coogan
TSMC's record capex and $100B US bet met with market skepticism despite AI demand conviction
TSMC's decision to significantly raise capex and commit $100B to Arizona fabs — after decades of cyclical discipline — signals high confidence in sustained AI compute demand; the market's n…
Open Source AItailwindscore 7/10tyler cosgrove
Thinking Machines' Inkling adopts Red Hat model: open weights + paid fine-tuning API
By releasing a 975B-parameter open-weights model (41B active) purpose-built for fine-tuning, Thinking Machines aligns product and business model — customers get weight ownership and portabi…
AI Safety & Alignmentriskscore 7/10john coogan
Distillation attacks at millions-of-accounts scale force frontier labs into whack-a-mole IP defense
Anthropic's disclosure of shutting down millions of distillation accounts weekly reveals an industrial-scale threat: wrapper companies resell API tokens to state-backed labs for model cloni…
Defense Techtailwindscore 7/10john coogan
Saronic's Texas shipyard win exposes California's industrial permitting crisis
The loss of a $3.2B automated shipyard (10K jobs) to Texas — driven by California's inability to expedite environmental review versus Texas's $211M abatement and speed — illustrates a struc…
Public Markets & Valuationmixedscore 6/10john coogan
Disney acquisition ROI debate misses $70B+ in shareholder returns
Comparing nominal acquisition spend ($182B inflation-adjusted) to current market cap ($169B) ignores capital returned via buybacks and dividends; proper assessment requires per-share accret…