TickerTain — Make Analysis Fun Again

TickerTain

←

▶ 7:56 · Memory & Storage · HBM memory shortage structural for years — only 3 suppliers, 5-year fab lead times

episode shorts · 3

Cerebras CEO WARNS About Selling AI Chips to China

HR Is About to Be Automated

AI Didn’t Cause These Layoffs

now playing · Memory & Storage

AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

AI infrastructure buildout is behind demand, not ahead — no bubble characteristics

Unlike fiber/rail bubbles where supply led demand, AI data center construction cannot keep up with current demand. Cerebras, Nvidia, AMD all have backlogs. $25B backlog at Cerebras alone. M…

Memory & Storagetailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

HBM memory shortage structural for years — only 3 suppliers, 5-year fab lead times

HBM is the #2 bottleneck after TSMC wafers. Only Samsung, Micron, Hynix produce it. Capacity additions are step-functions: $40B fabs taking 5 years. Micron earning 80-85% gross margins. If…

Neoclouds & Cloud Computingmixedscore 7/10andrew feldman

Neo clouds (CoreWeave) buy GPUs at 70-80% margins; vertically integrated players (Google, Cerebras) have structural cost advantage

Nvidia funds neo clouds to compete with hyperscalers, but neo clouds pay 70-80% GPU gross margins plus their own margin. Hyperscalers and Cerebras deploy own silicon at internal cost. Full-…

AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

Zero market for slow inference — speed compounds competitively, token cost plummeting

Inference speed has no upper bound for hard problems. 6.7x speed advantage means solving 6.7x more problems per unit time. History of semiconductors is massive reduction in cost per unit co…

Energy & Power Generationmixedscore 8/10andrew feldman

Electricity is the limiting factor for AI; US grid is 1950s patchwork vs China's modern infrastructure

AI is the business of turning electricity into intelligence. Energy may be the ultimate bottleneck. US power infrastructure is a patchwork of 1950s technology; China's is extraordinary. Bui…

Enterprise Softwareheadwindscore 7/10andrew feldman

Lawyers and CISOs are the primary barrier to enterprise AI adoption — not data quality

Security and legal teams have asymmetric payoff: no credit for success, all blame for failure. They default to 'no' for new tech with no precedent. Adoption tips when leaders (like Jensen)…

Geopolitics & Tradeheadwindscore 8/10andrew feldman

Don't sell leading-edge chips to China — military and industrial use is certain; choke points at TSMC/ASML suffice

Security consensus: China's military will use leading-edge chips, and their industry will use them to compete (solar, batteries, autos evidence). Natural choke points (TSMC fab, ASML EUV) a…

Semiconductorstailwindscore 8/10andrew feldman

US must onshore leading-edge fabs and packaging; 20-year regulatory exemption proposed

US lost not just fabs but entire packaging ecosystem. Strategic imperative to bring back cutting-edge manufacturing. Feldman proposes 20-year freedom from local ordinances for TSMC/Samsung…

Geopolitics & Tradeheadwindscore 7/10andrew feldman

Europe's innovation deficit: regulatory fear, tax mentality, stigma against failure

Europe has population and talent but 'be afraid, then regulate, tax' mentality works against entrepreneurship. Slower to invent AND adopt. Cultural stigma against failure (vs Silicon Valley…

←

▶ 7:56 · Memory & Storage · HBM memory shortage structural for years — only 3 suppliers, 5-year fab lead times

episode shorts · 3

Cerebras CEO WARNS About Selling AI Chips to China

HR Is About to Be Automated

AI Didn’t Cause These Layoffs

now playing · Memory & Storage

AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

AI infrastructure buildout is behind demand, not ahead — no bubble characteristics

Unlike fiber/rail bubbles where supply led demand, AI data center construction cannot keep up with current demand. Cerebras, Nvidia, AMD all have backlogs. $25B backlog at Cerebras alone. M…

Memory & Storagetailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

HBM memory shortage structural for years — only 3 suppliers, 5-year fab lead times

HBM is the #2 bottleneck after TSMC wafers. Only Samsung, Micron, Hynix produce it. Capacity additions are step-functions: $40B fabs taking 5 years. Micron earning 80-85% gross margins. If…

Neoclouds & Cloud Computingmixedscore 7/10andrew feldman

Neo clouds (CoreWeave) buy GPUs at 70-80% margins; vertically integrated players (Google, Cerebras) have structural cost advantage

Nvidia funds neo clouds to compete with hyperscalers, but neo clouds pay 70-80% GPU gross margins plus their own margin. Hyperscalers and Cerebras deploy own silicon at internal cost. Full-…

AI Infrastructuretailwindscore 9/10andrew feldman

Zero market for slow inference — speed compounds competitively, token cost plummeting

Inference speed has no upper bound for hard problems. 6.7x speed advantage means solving 6.7x more problems per unit time. History of semiconductors is massive reduction in cost per unit co…

Energy & Power Generationmixedscore 8/10andrew feldman

Electricity is the limiting factor for AI; US grid is 1950s patchwork vs China's modern infrastructure

AI is the business of turning electricity into intelligence. Energy may be the ultimate bottleneck. US power infrastructure is a patchwork of 1950s technology; China's is extraordinary. Bui…

Enterprise Softwareheadwindscore 7/10andrew feldman

Lawyers and CISOs are the primary barrier to enterprise AI adoption — not data quality

Security and legal teams have asymmetric payoff: no credit for success, all blame for failure. They default to 'no' for new tech with no precedent. Adoption tips when leaders (like Jensen)…

Geopolitics & Tradeheadwindscore 8/10andrew feldman

Don't sell leading-edge chips to China — military and industrial use is certain; choke points at TSMC/ASML suffice

Security consensus: China's military will use leading-edge chips, and their industry will use them to compete (solar, batteries, autos evidence). Natural choke points (TSMC fab, ASML EUV) a…

Semiconductorstailwindscore 8/10andrew feldman

US must onshore leading-edge fabs and packaging; 20-year regulatory exemption proposed

US lost not just fabs but entire packaging ecosystem. Strategic imperative to bring back cutting-edge manufacturing. Feldman proposes 20-year freedom from local ordinances for TSMC/Samsung…

Geopolitics & Tradeheadwindscore 7/10andrew feldman

Europe's innovation deficit: regulatory fear, tax mentality, stigma against failure

Europe has population and talent but 'be afraid, then regulate, tax' mentality works against entrepreneurship. Slower to invent AND adopt. Cultural stigma against failure (vs Silicon Valley…